The “first woman President”

When Hillary first declared her Presidential candidacy I said  that I wanted to vote for policies, not gender, and if Hillary was going to run on the platform of the “first woman President” then she would not succeed. Actually, she didn’t run on this platform, but others sent out that message all the same.

In the event 53% of white women voted for Trump. As Susan Chira of the New York Times (November 13, 2016) points out, what is more important to women than gender is party, class and racial identity, party identity being the principal predictor of how women (and men) vote. It turns out that Democtrats never win the majority of votes from white women. “All the talk about angry white men glosses over the fact that they are married to angry white women”. Education is a big factor. Trump won 62% of women without college educations, Hillary only 34%. Many women were/are worried about immigration, terrorism, the effects of trade on jobs, intrusive and over- large government. Others, college educated, minorities and young, unmarried women were the ones who did vote for Hillary, including a significant number of educated former Republicans.

I think Epicurus, were he with us today, would say that women should in every respect be treated as equals to men, be paid equally for equal work, and that nothing should stand in the way of women reaching the top of any profession they choose (without being bullied and groped!), including the Presidency. Some woman, during the election commented that it was inappropriate for a woman to be Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Nonsense! We need intelligent and thoughtful strategic thinkers – their gender is irrelevant.

Reforming Congress (ah! if only!)

Warren Buffet, in a recent interview with CNBC, offered one of the best quotes about the debt ceiling:
“I could end the deficit in five minutes,” he told CNBC. “You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election”.  Meanwhile, here is his answer to reform of the whole institution:

Current rates of pay, voted for themselves, regardless of effectiveness or even any knowledge:

Salary of retired US Presidents .. . . . .. . . . . .. $180,000 FOR LIFE

Salary of House/Senate members .. . . . .. . . . $174,000 FOR LIFE This is stupid
Salary of Speaker of the House .. . . . .. . . . .     $223,500 FOR LIFE This is really stupid
Salary of Majority/Minority Leaders . . .. . . . . $193,400 FOR LIFE Ditto last line
Average Salary of a teacher . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. ..  $40,065
Average Salary of a deployed Soldier . . .. . . ..  $38,000

Congressional Reform Act of 2016

  1.  No Tenure / No Pension:  A Congressman/woman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they’re out of office.
    2. Congress (past, present, & future) participates in Social Security.  All funds in the Congressional retirement fund would be move to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds to flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose.
    3. Congress will purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.
    4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.
    5. Congress loses its current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.
    6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.
    7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen/women are void effective 12/1/16. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen/women. Congress made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and go back to work.

The 26th Amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only three months and eight days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in 1971 – before computers, e-mail, cell phones, etc.
Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took one (1) year or less to become the law of the land – all because of public pressure.
In three days, most people in The United States of America will have this message, that is, if you would  be good enough to send it to your friends. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

 

England prepares to leave the world

‘If you believe you are a citizen of the world you are a citizen of nowhere.’ Mrs May will pass into folklore with that line, just as Mrs Thatcher is remembered for ‘There is no such thing as society.’ It’s her own Mad May Queen utterance. And yet the sentence reveals a lot. It comes out of a solid, unexamined nationalism.   (Neal Ascherson)

As an unabashed citizen of the world I believe in the Epicurean ideal of moderation in everything:  courtesy, kindness and tolerance and getting on with all the people of the planet.  On balance I believe that most people have good instincts and mean well.  I thought, or hoped, that Teresa May would not prove to be a typical, narrow-minded conservative, still harbouring out of date ideas about the Empire and British Exceptionalism, and hoped that she hadn’t added moslems to the list of (mostly European)  countries to be suspicious of.  Teresa May could be throwing red  meat to her Right Wing of Little Englanders (which means they despise foreigners, and have roaring superiority complexes). But the  jury is out on the lady May.

We have been through various spurts of nationalism, all of them disastrous. We need more citizens of the world, open-minded, and educated in the histories and cultures of the world.  Shameful ignorance of history and culture got us into Iraq and Afghanistan, and yet the conservatives in America want to “make America great again” (meaning, I suppose, even more wars on behalf of the military industrial complex) , and the British Tories, living in a mythical past, think that the world can’t wait to deal with an “independent” Britain, whose GNP is a rounding error next to that of, say, China.

If there is anyone up there, please help us!

Heathrow expansion, not unconnected with the issue of motor cars.

“For years there has been a lively debate about the pollution and disruption caused by building a new runway at Heathrow, (now to go ahead); these are valid concerns. But almost everyone ignores the issue that dwarfs all others: climate change. If our airports are full, there’s a solution: fly less. Is this beyond contemplation? If so, our ethics are weaker than those of 1791, when 300,000 British people, to disassociate themselves from slavery, stopped using sugar, reducing sales by a third. The perceptual gulf between us and the victims of climate change is no wider than the ocean that lay between the people of Britain and the Caribbean. If we do not make the leap of imagination that connects our actions with their consequences, it is not because we can’t but because we won’t.” (George Monbiot in The Guardian).

I think everyone ought to be  conscious of their contribution to climate change and what problems they are stacking up for future generations.

On the positive side my wife and I walk everywhere we possibly can, and use our tiny car very sparingly.  It is three years old and to all intents and purposes new. We use public transport exclusively in London.  On the minus side I admit that we do use aircraft, both coming and going across the Atlantic and to and fro to Florida. We  probably use the same amount of fossil fuel taxi-ing to take-off as we do all year in the car.  This is a moral issue, actually.  I don’t like to have to accuse myself of hypocrisy, but it is a fact that I stand among the guilty,  conveniently justifying myself  with the fact that the planes were leaving with or without me.  Me culpa. Stay at home?  “It’s not because we can’t but because we won’t”.

 

The motor car (follow-on from yesterday)

From Greg de Paco, New Westminster, British Columbia

“George Monbiot is correct that if a transportation system were designed today with the objective of moving people around efficiently it would not focus on the private automobile. In North America our transportation systems were not designed for efficient movement but for auto industry profit.

“The car companies bought up the street car systems of almost every North American city – Toronto and San Francisco alone successfully resisted – in order to tear up the rails and create a market for their product. This eventually resulted in an anti- trust conviction – and a fine of a single dollar.”

 

Self- driving cars

The Rocky Mountain Institute, an energy- focused think tank, says, in effect, that we are  on the verge of an energy and technology transformation to rival the sudden decline of the coal industry.  They point to the real technological transformation that could arrive from the merger of two vehicle trends — automation and electrification — and the idea that it could happen quite fast, with major consequences for reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.

Autonomous cars won’t just be safer and more energy efficient, the Institute argues.  Hiring one to taxi you around will also become very cheap, they argue, once these vehicles can be electrified, rather than running on gas. The upshot is that, perhaps quite soon, it will make more economic sense to have a robotaxi ferry you around on all your trips than to personally own a car. At the same time, as the trend becomes widespread — with fleets of autonomous vehicles, owned by companies or cities, on the road and not running on gas — our greenhouse gas emissions could plunge.

By the year 2018, the study argues, “solely using autonomous taxis for transportation could cost the same as owning and operating a car.” More specifically, the researchers think that electric robotaxis might quickly rival the per-mile cost of personal car use, which they say is 85 cents per mile.  Peak  car ownership in the United States will occur around 2020 and will drop quickly after that as a result and almost end in the big cities

And of course these vehicles will be electric because that, too, will save money — in this case, for the companies that own and operate them. The huge distances that autonomous vehicles might drive in their lifetimes will mean that even if an electric vehicle costs more than a gas vehicle to purchase, it will make up the difference over the course of its use.

Most striking is what this would do to greenhouse gas emissions. There would be  a major decrease in gasoline demand and, as a result, a major increase in electricity demand, and a plummeting of transportation-sector greenhouse-gas emissions. Walker said the reduction could be as large as 800 million tons per year in the U.S. by 2035, a huge contribution to fighting climate change.  (based on an article by Chris Mooney, September 22 , 2016)

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My feeling is that the issue is trust.  I wouldn’t trust an autonomous car under any circumstances at the moment.  Geeks are noticeably nonchalant and in denial about the reliability of hi- tech things already on the market. My own computer constantly plays up, and Microsoft and the computer manufacturers have  had 30 years at least to make them reliable.  Automated cars are altogether more potentially scary.  There are regulatory, legal and even ethical ssues to be addressed that will take ages sort out. It is possible to iron these challenges out, but you still have the problem that people are attached to the convenience of their cars and won’t want to give them up, especially if they drive long distances out of cities and into the countryside.

 

 

The coarsening of the culture

Issue one coarse crude or vulgar word while I was growing up and I was sent to my room without the next meal.

Among a host of other concerns raised by the election campaign, the coarseness of the language, the vulgarity, rudeness and lack of respect for others – these stand out as truly troubling.  We now have in the West a record number of people with further education, and an historically large number of young people in college.  And yet you have the impression that bad language is shrugged off and that anonymity on social media allows the most horrible ad hominem attacks and foul language, without any danger of paying for it.

As a follower of Epicurus I never thought I would say or think this, but “free speech” has gone too far and those who abuse it should be disciplined (clearly,  their incompetent parents were not inclined to do it; maybe they were preoccupied with shopping).  It is troubling that the “F” word, the “B” word  and the “C” word are  bandied about, and people don’t care.

I hope I am being proudly old-fashioned when I say that mutual toleration and respect are the cornerstones of civilisation (certainly of Epicureanism); that uttering foul language at the expense of the powerless isn’t funny, or clever, or meaningful – just beneath contempt.  Moderation allows us to live together and to differ in our views without screaming and shouting.

Want to know what else provoked my tirade? A made-for-TV series called “Mozart in the Jungle”, ostensibly featuring female players in a symphony orchestra (cue for beautiful, civilized music) preoccupied with crude sex and barrack-room language.  We  turned the thing off after 15 minutes. The crudity and vulgarity of the internet has invaded everything.

 

Trump’s proposed legislation (follow-on from yesterday)

Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act.

An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.

Competitive tax rates? Other countries can take part in a race to the bottom as well.  This subject needs a long essay.  Suffice to say, the deficit would sky-rocket.  The only sensible bit is the tax simplification, but every person’s tax complication is another’s handout or boondoggle.

End The Offshoring Act.

Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.

Probably too late, but in any case this threatens old- fashioned tarriff wars, something we tried to get away from for decades.

American Energy & Infrastructure Act.

Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.

About time.  But the Congressional Republicans don’t think this is a priority. Why, when bridges are collapsing and the infrastructure generally is obviously ageing, is a mystery.

School Choice And Education Opportunity Act.

Redirects education dollars to give parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.

Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.

Potential disaster.  How can you “save”  on minimum wages?  What is needed is a single payer system that cares for everyone but that means higher taxes.  As for the “red tape” at the FDA this is what protects us from dud drugs that are either dangerous or have horrible side effects.  Who thought that up? (why, the pharmaceutical companies, of course, and their lobbyists)

Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act.

Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.

Yes, o.k

End Illegal Immigration Act

Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.

America is a country of immigrants.  We need  them because the population is ageing, and in some cases we simply don’t have the skills. (poor education, as witnessed by the election!).  But I guess this is the main driver of the Trump success; fail in this and he’s out.

Restoring Community Safety Act.

Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.

Crime isn’t “surging”!  Is this an excuse for putting more blacks in jail and supporting the private jail industry?

What Trump wants to do

As quoted on National Public Radio, my brief comments in italics (rather long – my apologies)

On the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC:

* FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress; Great! It effectively would negate the anti-democratic gerrymandering.

* SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health).   Could be very damaging; depends which programs.  Already some departments, viz IRS, are severely undermanned, courtesy of Congress.

* THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;   Depends which!  Childishly simplistic.

* FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;  Brilliant.  Good luck with ghe Congress on that!

* FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;  Great!

* SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections. Great!

On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers:

* FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205.  Again, good luck with that!  Big fight with the corporations if you do!

* SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.  Excellent!

* THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator. Excuse me?

* FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.  How about starting with our own?

* FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.  Absolutely not. In any case, what is clean coal?  The oil and coal lobbies have got to him already?

* SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward.  Vital? Dirty, dangerous and unnecessary. Absolutely not!  

* SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure. Criminal idiocy!  Words fail me!

Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:

* FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama.   The next Democrat in the White House will do the same to yours. Obama has been a good President, faced with a neandertal Congress.

* SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States.  Disaster!  Where is advocacy for the end of Citizen’s United, the under-miner of democracy for a start? Get rid of that and you might get some Democrat support.  Looks like it’s here to stay.

* THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities. These are cities, Washington DC is one, that have local ordinances supposedly protecting illegal immigrants.  I don’t support lawbreaking.  If you want to make protecting illegal immigrants illegal pass a law. 

* FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back.   There are criminal immigrants, but not 2 million of them.  Don’t be ridiculous.

* FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.  They already are!

Some people thought this man could be a closet Democrat, a sheep in wolf’s clothing. Hah!

Where is the end of Citizen’s United, the under-miner of democracy for a start?  Get rid of that and you might get some Democrat support. 

He then has a number of legislative proposals, which I will comment on later.

 

 

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Everlasting warfare

The US is now fighting in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Somalia. Yet “no vital American interest is at stake” in any of these places. In 1980, president Jimmy Carter declared that any challenge to American positions in the Persian Gulf would be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the US, but back then we were engaged in a standoff with the Soviet Union and depended on oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. That’s no longer the case. Today, the US’s naval presence in the Gulf “serves mainly to increase tensions” and “escalate conflicts”. And the only beneficiary of that is the US arms industry.

Regarding Hillary  Clinton, one of the  things I felt uncomfortable about was her readiness to use military force and her support of the various wars in the Middle East.  It would be one thing if the wars were brutal, short and successful, but they never seem to be. Trump appears to be much less militaristic, and this is promising, if true,  and if he is not captured by the miltary-industrial complex.

Tomorrow, I would like to discuss some of the things Trump says he wants to do early on in his Presidency. Some are predictably damaging, but others look promising, if hard to deliver. Epicureans try to keep an open mind.

A point of view from an organisation representing liberal millionaires

Part of a letter this morning from Patriotic Millionaires:

–  Before he beat Hillary Clinton, Trump beat the entire GOP establishment. Our friends in the Republican Party should think very carefully before they start ringing the victory bells. By no stretch of the imagination was this some kind of embrace of Republican ideology, rather it was a full throated rejection of what voters perceive as establishment economics. Given the deplorable levels of economic and political inequality in this country, that reaction is both understandable and on some level entirely predictable.

– Underneath all that anger, a lot of fundamentally decent people are scared to death. That fear is real, its important, and its centered in economics. Fear makes people do crazy, destructive things. Perhaps this will force rational Republican politicians and their Chamber of Commerce allies to face the results of their decades long attack on working people. Maybe just maybe, this radical turn of events will force them to consider slicing the pie differently in the years ahead.

– While voters rejected the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, they embraced a new economic deal for working people. Yesterday, four states voted to raise the minimum wage to at least $12 an hour and another voted to not lower it for younger workers. That’s a 100% victory for “decent wages,” one of the Patriotic Millionaires core values. That is a powerful sign of things to come.

Let’s hope so!  (Ed.)

That sinking feeling

The writer was born in London and divides his time between Washington and London.  When the Brexit results were announced I felt I had lost my country.  I now feel I have lost the other one.  To lose two countries within months of one another would seem to be a bit careless,  but it is not by choice.

Ataraxia = 0.  Resignation= 1

Seriously, I believe that the ascent of Trump will be seen in the sweep of world history as marking the end of America world power, as the rest of the world scrambles to do deals with China (or Russia), or seeks new accommodations and arrangements in other ways.

Millions of men now opt for idleness

A “quiet catastrophe” has befallen America, says George F. Will.   Almost unnoticed, millions of American men have left the job market. A study has revealed the percentage of males of prime working age (25 to 54) in jobs today (84.4%) is smaller than it was as the Great Depression neared its end in 1940, when the unemployment rate was above 14%. Rather than being a product of recession, today’s retreat from the workplace appears to be “largely voluntary”: of the men in this age group who didn’t do any paid work in 2014, only about 15% say they were unemployed because they couldn’t find a job; the rest just didn’t want to find a job, preferring to live on benefits. “In 1965, even high school dropouts were more likely to be in the workforce than are the 25-to-54 males today.” A lot of men, it seems, have given up on the traditional rites of adult life – working for a living, getting married, raising a family. Whether welfare reforms or other policies can reverse this process remains to be seen. Still, one manifestation of this social regression, the rise of Donald Trump, “is perhaps perverse evidence that some of his army of angry young men are at least healthily unhappy about the loss of meaning, self-esteem and masculinity that is a consequence of chosen and protracted idleness”. (George F. Will, The Washington Post, 15 October 2016)

George Will, a crusading conservative, cannot connect the dots. He supports the Republicans (to his credit, not Trump), but cannot see that the Republican strategy of concentrating on lowering taxes for the rich and pandering to the same, and then totally ignoring the interests of the ordinary Republican voter has produced the revolts led by Trump (and Bernie). It’s the policies, stupid!

The incompetence of voters

In the Guardian Weekly of October 14th George Monbiot quotes the work of social science professors Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels, who say that most people possess almost no useful information about political policies and their implications, have little desire to improve their knowledge, and have a deep aversion to political disagreement. We base our political decisions on who we are, not what we think. We act politically – not as individual, rational beings, but as members of social groups, expressing a social identity . We seek out political parties that seem to correspond to our culture, with little regard to whether their policies support our interests. And we remain loyal to political parties long after they have ceased to serve us.

I am not sure that this is a new thought, but it certainly fits the people and the political parties whom we see about us. In an American context, Republicans continue to vote for the Republican party even though it brazenly represents a tiny number of very rich people and corporations and does little or nothing for its voters. In fact, it does nothing, period. The Democrats are not far behind, are also in bed with the rich, are advocate for globalisation and immigration etc, and are , or were,  either ignorant or unaware of the hurt and desperation of many of its voters. Hence Bernie.  Everyone I know fears or half expects a Brexit surprise tomorrow, despite the polls and overwhelming evidence of the unsuitability of Trump as prospective President.

The situation in Britain parallels that in the US. The whole “blow the whole thing up” vote for Brexit was an emotional reaction  of working class (perhaps we should call them “former working” class) people, feeling out of luck and mad about Tony Blair, the fat cats, the EU and East European fellows who have taken the jobs.  Wide knowledge of policies there was and is none.

This is why we elect representatives, paid to understand and address the complexities of modern life, and why it is important to have interested, capable, experienced and informed representatives.  Regrettably, nowhere are we getting the brightest of the bright, or the most honest, and this is a threat to any democratic system.  Nor does it look very likely will be done to improve the situation.

As an Epicurean, I don’t like it , but can see what is happening and am not surprised.  We have to retire to the “Garden” and cultivate what ataraxia we can summon up.