Who do you know who might suffer from the Dunning–Kruger effect?

The  Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. The phenomenon was first observed in a series of experiments by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of the department of psychology at Cornell University in 1999.  They attributed this cognitive bias to a metacognitive incapacity on the part of those with low ability to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their competence accurately. Their research also suggests corollaries: high-ability individuals may underestimate their relative competence and may erroneously assume that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.
Dunning and Kruger, in 1999, postulated that the effect is the result of internal illusion in those of low ability, and external misperception in those of high ability: “The miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”  The study was inspired by the case of McArthur Wheeler, a man who robbed two banks after covering his face with lemon juice in the mistaken belief that, because lemon juice is usable as invisible ink, it would prevent his face from being recorded on surveillance cameras. The authors noted that earlier studies suggested that ignorance of standards of performance lies behind a great deal of incorrect self-assessment of competence.
This pattern of over-estimating competence was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, practicing medicine, operating a motor vehicle, and playing games such as chess and tennis. Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will fail to recognise
  • their own lack of skill
  •  the extent of their inadequacy
  • fail to accurately gauge skill in others
  • acknowledge their own lack of skill only after they are exposed to training for that skill.
Philosophers and scientists have spotted the same thing, including Confucius (“Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance”),  Bertrand Russell  (“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision”), Charles Darwin  whom they quoted in their original paper (“Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”) and Shakespeare in As You Like It (“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool” .

6 Comments

  1. A popular riff on a related subject is “gaslighting”, which derives from a 1944 Ingrid Bergman film, “Gaslight”. In the film the husband persuades his wife that what she is certain happened is a figment of her imagination, and that she is going mad. Gaslighting is a deliberate attempt to deceive someone into questioning their own memory and their perception of reality. A good example was when Trump, having popularised the idea that Obama was born in Kenya, then turned round and claimed that Hillary had started the conspiracy. He makes cruel remarks and later insists that he never made them. His loss of the election by 3 million actual votes is turned into a “landslide ” for his candidacy. The crowds at the inauguration were the biggest ever, despite photographs to prove otherwise. We all start to wonder whether we have been dreaming and wonder if our memories are faulty. We are being manipulated by a skilled manipulator, and supporters believe him because the badly want to do so.

    • The American mainstream media is the real manipulator.

      10 ways the mainstream media creates fake news

      http://www.hangthebankers.com/10-ways-mainstream-media-creates-fake-news/

      The 7 Worst Examples of Fake News From the Mainstream Media

      http://townhall.com/columnists/johnhawkins/2016/12/10/the-7-worst-examples-of-fake-news-from-the-mainstream-media-n2257896

      “Of course, liberals being liberals, they lump pretty much every
      conservative website that gives them a case of the “sads” into the “fake
      news” category. Breitbart? Fake News. Right Wing News? Fake news. Redstate? Fake news.

      What they really want is to use “fake news” as an excuse to
      encourage social media platforms to censor conservatives. “

      • I would like to ask you, yes or no, do you think President Obama was born in Kenya? Do you think that Hillary
        started this story about where he was born? Do you think hordes of illegal immigrants voted in the election, accounting for 3 million more votes
        for Hillary than for Trump. And, lastly, do you believe that the crowds present at the
        inauguration were the biggest ever, more than all previous inaugurations? I am not trying to trick you or catch you out; I would really like to know in order to understand you better.

        • CNN GUEST CLAIMS BERKELEY RIOTERS WERE “RIGHT-WINGERS”

          http://govtslaves.info/cnn-guest-claims-berkeley-rioters-were-right-wingers/

          “We’ve seen the leftist media refuse to condemn and in some cases even celebrate
          the vicious assaults on people for exercising their right to free speech that took place on Wednesday night, but for someone to claim thatthe entire sequence of events was a vast right-wing conspiracy is even more bizarre.

          Reich’s absurd comments shouldn’t even
          be dignified with a rebuttal, suffice to say that the same black-clad Antifa leftists have been rioting their way through cities up and down the country for weeks, including at Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington DC. Was that all a secret right-wing plot too?

          Milo’s speeches have also been shut down and interrupted by leftists in numerous different cities for the best part of a year. Were all those incidents cooked up by Milo’s fans too?

          These remarks illustrate once again how the left is willing to completely disconnect itself from reality when they are soundly trounced on a narrative.”

          • As a matter of fact the Washington Post, for instance, has plainly stated that the disruptions at Berkeley were not caused by right wingers, but by violent troublemakers, who were similar, if not the same people who smashed windows etc in Washington on the day of the inauguration. These are not political people , they are yobs who enjoy violence. And you are talking about one CNN commentator, Reich, who was ill-informed and out of order.

            Now, you see,I have answered in a conversational manner. Can you see the difference?

    • Thanks to the internet, social media, and alt news sites, Americans have at last seen through the lies and distortions of the MSM.

      2016 was the awakening of the people of America and Europe is rousing from its slumber as well.

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