Chipping away at our health

The Trump administration has quietly reshaped enforcement of air pollution standards in recent months through a series of regulatory memos. The memos are fulfilling the top wishes of industry, which has long called for changes to how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) oversees the nation’s factories, plants and other facilities. The EPA is now allowing certain facilities to be subject to less-stringent regulations and is letting companies use friendlier math in calculating their expected emissions. Environmentalists and public health advocates say the memos could greatly increase levels of air pollutants like mercury, benzene and nitrogen oxides. They accuse the EPA of avoiding the transparency and public input requirements that regulatory changes usually go through.

I have picked just this one instance of harming-the-public-while-delighting-business to illustrate what is happening, mostly behind closed doors and without input from health or public interest groups. Air pollutants like mercury benzene and nitrogen oxides were unknown in the days of Epicurus (lucky Epicurus!), but if they had been I think he sould have been an advocate for regulation, and would have excoriated those who were knowingly and deliberately endangering both health and lives. And for what? Grubby donations to a political cause?

The gunrunner President

American weapons makers have dominated the global arms trade for decades. In any given year, they account for between one-third and more than a half by value of all international weapons sales.

Until recently, the Trump administration had focused on the promotion of big-ticket items like fighter planes, tanks, and missile defense systems around the world. Now Trump has specifically instructed American diplomats to put special effort into promoting arms sales. This has effectively turned them into agents for the country’s largest weapons makers.

Meanwhile, huuman rights and even national security concerns have taken a back seat to creating domestic jobs via such arms sales. Evidence of this can be found in, for example, the elimination of the Obama administration arms sales suspensions to Nigeria, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. Despite Saudi Arabia’s commission of acts that one member of Congress has said “look like war crimes” in its Yemeni intervention, and his defence of the Saudi regime in the matter of the assassination of Jamal Khasogghi, Trump continues to protect his much-vaunted arms sales. No one has accused him of having any shred of moral fiber.

The fact is that fuelling death and destruction actually generates significantly fewer jobs per dollar than almost any other kind of investment. In addition, many of those jobs will actually be located overseas, thanks to production-sharing deals with weapons-purchasing countries like Italy, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and other U.S. allies. In particular, Saudi Arabia is seeking to ensure that, by 2030, half the value of the kingdom’s arms purchases will be produced in Saudi Arabia. The McClatchy news service summed up the situation in this headline: “Trump’s Historic Arms Deal Is a Likely Jobs Creator — In Saudi Arabia”.

Meanwhile, the Department of Defense has brokered agreements for sales of major systems worth $46 billion in the first six months of 2018, more than the $41 billion in deals made during all of 2017. And that, it seems, is just the beginning. (Tomgram, Aug 14 2018 edited review of “The NRA and the Gun Industry in the Global Stratosphere By William D. Hartung”)

So the priority of the American diplomat overseas is to sell arms! As if there were not sufficient violence and ethnic division in the world already, made worse by modern methods of slaughter. This is supported by the christian supporters of a president who is scrapping the restraints put upon other disagreeable, repressive regimes, put in plce by his predecessors. People who subscribe to the peaceable ideas of Epicurus should be appalled. The problem is that every day there is yet another shock to our sense of decency, as ataraxia gets daily more difficult to achieve.

Take those impractical courses, kids!

The President of John Hopkins University, Ronald J. Daniels, recently overheard a conversation among students. One opined that he would have liked to have enrolled in an introductory course in philosophy, but that the demands of his major meant that “enlightenment would have to wait”, you “gotta get a job”, and that therefore he would have to sign up for a “practical” course. Such is the pressure of the sceptics of the humanities (“what use is 19th Century French literature?”) that courses in the humanities in the US are dwindling and are known in the trade as “fragile disciplines”.

I was recently talking with a very senior person from the US Treasury. In the course of the conversation he told me that the biggest problem in the Treasury was the lack of people who could write English, communicate with the Press, not to mention internally, and make the jargon of the department comprehensible. He said that good writers with a command of grammar and vocabulary were among the highest earners in this large department.

I read Modern History at University. For “history” you can resd “human motivations, national interest and mass psychology”. I ended up running a company and found history a great foundation for managing employees and customers, the two most important aspects of management. Of course, not everyone will end up managing people, but learning the technical part of a job comes after you have honed your imagination, ethical decision-making, writing skills, discernment, critical thinking, self-reflection, empathy, and tolerance. Not to mention sense of humour, without which all business can be grim.

Actually, recent studies show that those with humanities degrees are thriving in the workplace. They experience low rates of unemployment and high levels of job satisfaction. Throughout an average career the ratio between average median incomes for humanties degree holders and those with business, engineering, health and medical science degrees has been shown to narrow. As if only income matters in a lifetime.

Yet another serious “derivatives” threat

Prospect Magazine, October 2018 edition, runs an article by Jay Elwes entitled “The Brexit Crunch”, and it is very important indeed. A precis of the article follows. Long-ish, but bear with me:

In 2008 the total value of all CDOs (Collateralised Debt Obligations) and Credit Default Swaps, both types of derivatives, was $458 trillion. One might be forgiven for imagining lessons have been learned, pace Warren Buffet, who severely criticized the derivatives business last time. But no. The current value of all derivatives at the moment is now an astonishing $542.4 trillion, and, furthermore, the modern type of derivative is designed not so much to allocate risk but to conceal it.

The last disaster was caused by over-stretched sub-prime house borrowers. This time it is Brexit.

It seems the British government is going to pass a law allowing EU companies to work on derivative trades post- Brexit, but the EU has made no corresponding offer. If no agreement is forthcoming British finance companies will be unable to operate in the EU. The value of the EU derivatives operated by British companies in the EU is about £27 trillion at any one time. If there is no agreement between the UK and the EU, the legal basis of the derivatives will disappear the day Brexit is effective, and the British companies would have to apply for permission to trade with every country in which they operate. It is possible that the European Court of Human Rights would ensure that freedom to enter contracts, and property rights over derivatives, would be maintained. But it would take time to litigate, and the British companies need immediate clarity.

Worse than this threat of disruption is the fact that after 2008 regulators pushed derivates into clearing houses, the biggest of which is LCH (formerly London Clearing House). LCH clears billions of EU trades every day. When Brexit happens LCH and other clearing houses will be regarded by the EU as “third country entities”, and would lose their right to trade in the EU. Banks would have to move their businesses into continental clearing houses, and find someone prepared to buy all the trades they individually have on their books, a tall order. This in turn would create a stampede to sell assets built up over many years, amounting to an estimated £33 trillion.

The European Banking Authority has said in a statement that “firms cannot take for granted that they can continue to operate as at present, nor can they rely on as yet unrealised political agreements”. This matter of derivatives could cause a giant international meltdown and is arguably the least discussed, but most important issue, about Brexit, not, of course, even thought about (or understood?) by Brexiteers.

Were I not of Epicurean persuasion I would add: Heaven help us!

How to reform the US Senate

For those of you who read the New York Times, you would have read that the senators who voted to confirm Kavanaugh represent only 44% of the US population. These senators tend to come from states which are small, rural and disproportionately white. In an era where race and population density play an ever-greater role in determining political preferences, the system, however unintentionally, seems heavily bias in favour of the Republicans. Combined with a hyper-partisan climate, and the results are toxic.

Defenders of the Senate as it is point to the intentions of the Founders. They wanted senators to be wise councillors, uninhibited by tribal bickering and hot-headedness. More importantly, the Constitution was written in the context of a society where state identity was very strong. The most common criticism of the Constitution was that it granted the federal government too much power; anti-federalism was still very strong in country that had been governed under the Articles of Confederation. By ensuring that states were represented as states, power-hungry demagogues who appealed to the whims of the masses would have their ambitions curtailed.

But it goes without saying that America in the early 21st century is a very different place to America in the late 18th century. States, particularly the small Midwestern ones, have a weaker identity, and one which is more cultural than political. The slave-non slave division no longer exists. America’s primary economic division used to be between the industrialised Northeast and the agricultural South. It is now between globalised cities and de-industrialised small towns. Since the New Deal, America has become accustomed to the federal government playing an active role in society; a chamber cannot defend its existence simply as a curb on ‘big government.’ Put simply, the Founders could never have foreseen America’s current political, socioeconomic and demographic nature.

On the other hand, what constitutional conservatives get right is that it would be a mistake for the Senate to become a mere replica of the House of Representatives. Already, the Senate exhibits some of the worst features traditionally associated with the House: ultra-partisanship, a lack of technical expertise and experience, frequent stalemates. The influence of corporate money is even worse in the Senate due to the sheer expense of running an election across a whole state. The existence of the filibuster makes passing all but the budget reconciliation bills an arduous process. If America is to have a second chamber, it ought to be one which contributes wisdom, moderation and a long-term vision. Democrats have proposed a range of reforms to make the Senate more representative: giving bigger states more senators, giving Puerto Rico and DC statehood, campaign finance reforms. But these would only make the Senate a copy of the House- hardly a desirable outcome given the general unpopularity of Congress.

Rather, reforms to the Senate ought to focus on reducing its power. A chamber that is increasingly unrepresentative should not be able to indefinitely veto legislation, particularly pertaining to finance matters like the budget or the debt ceiling. The Senate should transition into being more of a revising chamber, akin to Britain’s House of Lords or Germany’s Bundesrat. Most bills should originate in the House, with the Senate mostly tasked with improving legislation, not changing it entirely. This would have the happy effect of reducing the amount of money poured into Senate campaigns, and thus the amount of time senators have to waste fundraising.

The Senate should also be non-partisan. This already happens in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature. While true non-partisanship will be extremely difficult to achieve, the absence of party whips would allow Senators to vote their conscience, fearing only the views of their constituents. For example, Trump-sceptic conservatives could oppose some of his policies without being labelled a traitor to the Republican Party. This would have the added benefit of replacing party primaries with a single primary to determine who stands in the general election.

America is fortunate to have the Senate. The Founders were right to fear the power-hungry men that were attracted to the House. They wanted a civilised, intelligent platform where the conflicting interests of the states could be resolved amicably. Progressives who favour the abolition of the Senate point to countries like Sweden or New Zealand, which seem to get on perfectly well without one. But those countries have a multi-party political culture, where coalitions and compromises with those from other parties are normal. America, which is dominated by two bitterly opposed parties, needs a non-partisan, experienced and wise second chamber. And while the political salience of state identity has been reduced, it remains a prominent fact of life which requires representation.