It’s still not popular to be religiously unaffilated

One in five Americans is religiously unaffiliated, and the figure is growing.  Yet just one of 535 members of the new Congress, Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, is a declared non-believer.  “Unaffiliated,” is defined as people who are atheist, agnostic or who describe their religion as “nothing in particular.” That means only 0.2 percent of Congress is unaffiliated, compared with 23 percent of U.S. adults. That group is faster-growing than any religious group in America, as Pew found in 2015.  Meanwhile, nearly 91 percent of congressional members are Christian, compared with 71 percent of U.S. adults.

Part of the reason for this is that unaffiliated people tend to be young, and the young do not vote in great numbers. The inverse is also true: older, religious Americans vote more often and are more politically cohesive.  This is reflected in the makeup of Congress: in the 114th Congress, the average age for House members was 57 years old and for senators it was 61. (To a modest extent, this is a reflection of age rules: Senators must be 30 or older, and representatives have to be at least 25.)

I believe in belief.  One has to have something good to believe in rather than money, power, sex and material possessions.  This is why I personally follow the teachings of Epicurus .  Epicureanism is the closest thing I know to Christianity without being an organised religion and without the trappings of priesthood, buildings, hierarchy, doctrines and sectional squabbles.  If young Americans and Europeans decide to believe in  Epicureanism – moderation, consideration for others, tolerance, equality, generosity to those less well off, and simply getting on cheerfully with others –  then the intolerant christians and moslems who anethematize the “unaffiliated” can be ignored.  Time is on our side, in the United States at least.

Could Trump go bankrupt?

No one is discussing or even mentioning it.

Say, three months into the Trump Presidency an infuriated supporter of ISIS lays a bomb in one of the many Trump Towers.  The explosion wrecks the building, killing scores of people. Another 9/11.

First, there would be a giant exodus of companies and private individuals from Trump properties all over the world.  Why be such an obvious target?  Trump Inc. fortunes plunge.

Secondly, Trump, who seems unable to separate his empire from his job as President, orders the military to protect  his remaining properties throughout the world.  The ensuing Court case reaches the Supreme Court.  Not even a packed Court of Trump supporters would, surely, think it appropriate for the US military to be protecting a building owned by an individual citizen – that is the job of local police.  The Supreme Court decides that this use of the army is inappropriate.  No lettings, no hotel guests left, just extremely expensive protection of empty buildings by private contractors.

Trump is the first President to go, in short order, from billionaire to bankrupt in the history of the United States.

He hasn’t thought this out!

The gig economy in the United States

 The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the independent workforce is some 162 million people, up to 30% of the working-age population in the United States (and most of Europe)..The report looked at the full spectrum of ways in which individuals earned income outside traditional employee roles. It says independent workers fit into four key segments:
–  About 30% are “free agents,” who actively choose independent work and derive their primary income from it.
–  Approximately 40% are “casual earners,” who use independent work to supplement their income by choice
–  The “reluctants” make their primary living from independent work, but would prefer traditional jobs; they make up 14%
–  Then there’s the “financially strapped,” who do supplemental independent work out of necessity, accounting for 16%.
McKinsey says its survey found the majority of independent workers in all countries participated by choice and were attracted by the flexibility and autonomy.  But most of the people involved are young and are maybe, at this stage of their lives, indifferent to the lack of benefits, the income security and the non- existent training.  

Those working for companies like Deliveroo, Uber  are classed as self-employed and are expected to be freely and regularly available, to such an extent that there is no time to work for anyone else.  They  get no paid holidays, sick pay or pensions.

It’s all very well for young people to take advantage of the relative freedom offered by the “gig” employers, but the moment you decide to get married, buy a house and have children panic will, or should, set it.  You cannot educate and care for a child not knowing whether or when you will get any steady income.  It is unconscionable to expect a parent with two or three children to have no security at all, no annual holidays, no pension, and, if it comes to that, no parental leave.  The point is that, if you have been working for years at part-time, rather than skilled work, how do you expect to get a serious, responsible, well- paid job with security later on, when you need it?  Maybe you can argue that this is foolish lack of foresight, and why should we care  if that is what they want to do.  Be carefree now, suffer later?

So be it, but there is  a type of money-obsessed,  clever but autistic, top businessman who is fixing the economy in  such a way that he can hire and fire with impunity, lower input costs and pocket the profits while being totally indifferent to the rest of us and to civilised treatment of workers, mWe will pay a high price for not reining them in.

 (P.S From the U.S Department of Labor:  “In early 2016, we announced that our Bureau of Labor Statistics will conduct a survey on contingent and  alternative employment,for the first time since 2005 to help us understand how many of America’s workers are participating in “gig work”— that is, nontraditional work arrangements.”   My comment: so by now you have the statistics; what have you been doing about them?)

 

 

 

The gig economy benefits no one: the situation in Britain

The gig economy has transformed the way we work in Britain, says Andrew Grice. Some five million people – one in seven of the workforce – are now classified as self-employed: an incredible rise of 45% since 2000. Indeed, when Tory ministers boast of creating 2.7 million jobs since 2010, what they don’t say is that a third are probably self-employed jobs. That means a vast number of workers now lack such basic rights as parental leave and sick pay. It also means a headache for the Treasury. Employers have, until now, been one of the most efficient “tax collectors for the state”: they deduct the requisite income and national insurance tax from an employee’s wages, add their own National Insurance contributions of 13.8%, and send it off to the Exchequer. But as firms increase their use of agency staff, and as more people become self-employed, that income stream to the Treasury starts to dry up. So MPs have a “difficult balance” to strike – ensuring people can still work flexibly; minimising the tax advantages that induce companies to shed their obligations to the workforce by employing the self-employed; and minimising the damage to the public finances.  (Andrew Grice, The Independent, quoted in The Week,10 December 2016)

The government has stood aside and let this train wreck happen.  Some people are imaginative, self-motivated and have good skills.  They would thrive anywhere.   But the majority are “self-employed” from necessity.  It is no way to live.  It is stressful, not knowing whether you will be able to feed your family, whether you will get sick and whether you will have any pension when you reach retirement age.  The only people who benefit are the CEOs and Board members, raking in the profits and, in so many cases , investing little or nothing.

Epicurus, were he alive today, would recall that previous generations enjoyed reasonable job security for most of their working lives.  Writing as one who  benefited from the old system I think it is appalling the way people are being treated now us (more principled?) people are out of the way.   Voted for Brexit?  Were I suffering in the gig economy I would have voted that way too.  Epicurus, would, I am sure, agree.   Life is short, too short to be exploited and bullied. Please let us just stop it!

 

Slavery today

That there is still slavery, alive and well, in the world, is a fact that should shock us all.  The International Labour Organization estimates that there are, globally, 36 million slaves, a fact that adds $150 billion annually to the criminal economy. Slavery is not only unacceptable morally; it also has a disproportionate impact on climate change and species loss. This is because a lot of it is found in food production, mining, brick-making logging, charcoal production and other activities that damage the natural environment.

An example are the seafood processing camps in the Sundarbans World Heritage site in the Bay of Bengal, a vast area of protected mangrove forest that is a major carbon sink and is home to protected species. It is also a crucial buffer for coastal towns against cyclones. Slaves are made to clear the forest, which releases CO2 and also pushes tigers to the brink of extinction. The profits driving this destruction come from the global market for shrimp and pet food.

If the whole slave population constituted a country it would have Canada’s population and the GDP of Kuwait, but would rank third for CO2 emissions, after China and the US. It is not necessarily intuitive, but enforcement of existing anti-slavery laws would diminish both CO2 emissions and species loss, while also warding off the threat of rising sea levels and destructive deforestation. This would have little or no economic cost for existing (non-criminal) industries and markets, and would help lift depressed economic areas.

Kevin Bales, of the University of Hull, UK, suggests that if freed slaves were paid to replant the forests they were forced to cut, this could generate carbon credits, and selling these credits would help to fund the rehabilitation of land and people. ( Adapted from“Slaves to destruction” by Kevin Bales , University of Hull, UK) .

Epicurus was no supporter of slavery. He appears to have had no slaves himself, welcoming slaves and ex- slaves into his garden. Were he alive today I think he would agree that forced labour is immoral and inefficient and that you get the best work out of people who are free. The modern situation should have much more publicity; people are simply unaware of it.  But , having been made aware, how can you continue to buy the products produced by means of slavery?

 

Democracy?

The citizens of the District of Columbia, comprising 680,000 people, pay more Federal income tax than 22 other states.  Notwithstanding that, they have no voting member of Congress at all.   Eleanor Holmes Norton has been in Congress, representing the District, for many years,  but only as an observer.

What is the second- most priority of the new Rupublican majority in Congress ( after trying to suppress ethics investigations into their affairs)?  Why, confirming that Ms. Holmes Norton will continue to have no vote, and that an entity with a higher population than some Western states, will remain unrepresented.  A single vote, of course, is not going to decide anything very much, but that is not the point. Giving the District a single vote would have been a small act of reconciliation after a brutal election, an act of goodwill, costing nothing really and in no way threatening Republican control.

What this does confirm is the flimsy commitment of the Republican party to democracy.  “Embrace it when it suits you” does not seem to be in the spirit of “American exceptionalism”,  but it is part of the whole idea that you get away with what you can get away with.  Epicurus always warned us about politics.  I guess what goes around comes around.  Nothing is forever.

 

 

 

Reasons for hope

 Amid the doom and gloom around us there is good reason to think that the lot ot mankind is actually improving.  Cheer youselves with the following good news:
– After about 200 years of pouring greenhouse gases into the air, resulting in the highest carbon dioxide levels since humans first walked the Earth, the rate of increase stalled in 2016 for the third year running, despite improved economic growth.  Nonetheless, we need to get emissions down by 80% , because the existing carbon is still up there, and every molecule of it survives at least 100 years)
– Africa is adopting smart phones at a huge rate, and the internet is spreading faster than anywhere else in the world.  By 2020 there will be 700 million of them, and they will account for 8% of GDP.
– latest figures  show that 64% of women are now using some form of contraception, up from 36% in 1970. Africa expects to have the highest growth over the next 15 years.  The projected 11 billion world population by 2100 may already be an exaggeration. At any rate there is a possibility that the developing world will be following the West’s trajectory towards two- child families.
–  Malaria is in retreat, except in sub- Saharan Africa; cancer deaths are falling , and AIDs treatments are expected to help 30 million by 2020.
– 50 million people worldwide are escaping poverty every year throughout the world, and increasing numbers are beginning to enjoy what we might call a middle- class life.  Aside from the turmoil in the Middle East, Sub- Saharan Africa is the toughest problem, accounting for 51% of the global poor.  Huge numbers of poor Africans are annually moving south, trying to get to South Africa. Even in that part of the world, countries like Namibia and Botswana are doing well, despite the high incidence of AIDS.

On drones

The thought of terrorists using drones haunts security officials in Europe and elsewhere.  The Dutch are training  hunting birds like the eagle to help combat the security threats posed by the proliferation of off-the-shelf drones — unmanned aerial vehicles — of the type that can pose risks to aircraft. The fear is that these drones could be used to  drop contraband into jails, conduct surveillance or fly dangerously over public events.

Mark Wiebes, a detective chief superintendent in the Dutch police, described the tests, conducted at an abandoned Dutch airfield, as “very promising,” and said that, subject to a final assessment, birds of prey were likely to be deployed soon in the Netherlands, along with other measures to counter drones. The Metropolitan Police Service in London is also considering using trained birds to fight drones.

This has been described as a “a low-tech solution for a high-tech problem” but, on the contrary, what it highlights is the fact that in terms of maneuverability, the flying skills of an eagle (and most other flying creatures) are vastly superior to any form of technology.  In this, as in so many other instances, technology crudely imitates nature. (based on a New York Times article, May 2016 )

New technology is often developed because it can be developed, whether it benefits or complicates the lives of others or not.  We know about the CIA killer drones, and these alone provoke some moral and ethical questions about the killing the innocent bystanders.  But ordinary commercial drones are surely an accident waiting to happen, especially if they are used near airports.

Amazon is experimenting with deliveries by drone.  Drones cannot ring the front door bell to announce a parcel delivered (can they?).  Where I live parcels left by the front door get stolen (some of them), and you don’t need many thefts and replacements before the initial cheapness and speed of drone delivery is overwhelmed by the dead cost of replacement.  Do you suppose people think these problems through?  But it is use by terrorists that is the real threat.

 

 

Some good news, and then some not-so-good news, for 2017

Genetic and stem cell technologies are on the cusp of letting us clone even infertile endangered animals when intact DNA is available. And some extinct species could be brought back by tweaking the genome of a living close relative. It should also be possible to engineer lost traits into a population. Some targeted animals are the northern white rhino, which is now down to three infertile individuals living in Kenya, the black-footed ferret, the heath hen (currently extinct), and the passenger pigeon. Woolly mammoths are a little further over the horizon. A project is under way to endow Asian elephant eggs with mammoth DNA. After the legwork is done over the next year, the first cloning attempts are scheduled for 2018. (Sandrine Ceurstemont, New Scientist, Dec 17, 2016)

On the other hand, a totally unrelated – and scary – problem:  warm ocean water is flowing under the Totten glacier in East Antarctica at a rate of 220,000 cu. m. per second . The latest climate forecasts threaten us with a whopping sea level rise of 11 feet if and when the the Totten glacier in East Antarctica were to totally melt from below.

The resurrection of the wooly mammoth recedes into irrelevance if humanity, its farmland and cities are to be drowned in melted ice, entirely the fault of a greedy minority of mankind.  Pray that Trump doesn’t hasten the process!  One realises how thin the veneer of education and general knowledge is in raw reality.  Epicurus might blame our inadequate education system and the gullibility it leaves as a waste product.

Who is going to have the final say about Brexit?

I am no lawyer but I am flummoxed by the Article 50 legal hearing currently before the British Supreme Court. The issue is whether Parliament should have the final say in Brexit, if necessary over-ruling any agreement made with the EU.  The reason I am puzzled is the reported preoccupation with the phrase “from time to time”.    Section 2, sub-section 1, of the European Communities Act of 1972  (I won’t quote it verbatim – it will put you to sleep) says, in effect, that once the Act is passed you don’t need any further parliamentary Act when the EU hands down “from time to time”  various rules and regulations etc.  Seems sensible. The Government is now asking the Supreme Court to believe that the “from time to time” phrase gives the UK a mechanism for opting out of the EU without actually revoking the Act.   But Brexit isn’t just a normal piece of regulation – it is a totally irrevocable, huge and seismic event.

Brexit is in fact a repeal of the accession, which was agreed by the British parliament in 1972.  If they agreed it, they should repeal it.  Period.  It’s a sort of divorce, and divorce doesn’t occur “from time to time”.  Moreover, the words “from time to time” apply to the rights conferred by the EU, not to the treaties, which have been fixed by Parliament.  You can’t scrap the treaties without parliament having the final say.  Nor can the rights conferred by the treaties, such as freedom of movement , non-discrimination etc,  be simply  scrapped by Government edict.  There is a thing called the Bill of Rights which confers inalienable freedoms on the people.  I think I may be correct in stating that the new rights granted by the EU now come under the aegis of the Bill of Rights and can’t just be scrapped.   (Based upon an article by Andrew O’Hagan in the London Review of Books)

Even if Parliament does have  the final say there is some doubt as to whether the politicians will dare go against the will of the majority as expressed in the wretched referendum and possibly lose their seats as a result.  But meanwhile the Conservative government is making itself slightly ridiculous, while the Scots, and maybe the Welsh, are relishing the arguments which are stoking the flames of their own exits from the United Kingdom.  Make Britain Great again?

Caring for the elderly (2): hospices

In the United States there has been a huge influx of for-profit companies into what was started as a humane, civilised way of leaving this world in a caring, kindly way.  Profiting from death was the last thing the founders of St. Christopher’s hospice in London thought of when they established the first hospice in the mid-’70s.  But a Washington Post analysis of hundreds of thousands of U.S. hospice records indicates that, as for-profit companies, financed by Wall Street, transformed the movement once dominated by community and religious organizations into a $17 billion industry, patient care suffered along the way.

Between 2000 and 2012, the number of for-profit hospices tripled to 2,196, according to federal figures, compared with about 1,500 nonprofit hospices, including those run by local governments.   In 2012, Medicare spent more than $15 billion on hospice care,

On several key measures, for-profit hospices as a group fall short of those run by nonprofit organizations:

  • For-profit hospices had a smaller proportion of registered nurses than non-profits; patients at for-profit hospices received a narrower range of services; and  for-profit hospices were more likely to restrict enrollment of patients with potentially high-cost care.
  •  For-profit hospices spend less on nursing per patient –  $30 a day per patient on nursing visits, compared with $36 per day for non-profits.
  •  For-profits are less likely to have sent a nurse to a patient’s home in the last days of life.  A typical patient at a for-profit hospice is 22 percent less likely to have been visited by a nurse during this window than a patient at a nonprofit hospice.
  •  For-profits are less likely to provide more intense levels of care for patients undergoing a crisis in their symptoms. Nonprofits offered about 10 times as much of this per patient-day as did for-profits.
  •  For-profits have a higher percentage of patients who drop out of hospice care before dying. 22 percent of  patients leave a for-profit hospice, while only 14 percent leave  nonprofits. High rates of dropout are often viewed as a sign that patients were pushed out of hospice when their care grew expensive, left dissatisfied or were enrolled for hospice even though they were not close to death.

The quality of individual hospices varies widely. In some cases, for-profit hospices provide service at levels comparable to nonprofits, according to the review. But the data analysis, based on hundreds of thousands of Medicare patient and hospice records from 2013, shows that the gap between the for-profits as a whole and nonprofits is striking and consistent. There is a pressure to cut costs and  sparse government oversight.  Hospices are paid a flat daily fee by  Medicare for each of their patients, and this means that the fewer services they provide, the wider their profit margin.

On the plus side for-profits can more easily raise money for investments in equipment and expansion, achieve a size that offers them economies of scale, and are maybe more efficient.  A large hospice can, in theory, afford to lose money on some patients who may need extraordinary care.

My own observations, necessarily limited, suggest that care homes and hospices are run by poorly paid and barely-trained people, often imported from developing countries, with no experience and sometimes poor English.   Serving in such homes is for the staff, unsurprisingly, a temporary expedient before finding a better-paid job.  The care can be rough and casual, the food pretty dreadful, the patients drugged, and the TV permanently on. This is how we push the elderly out of sight and out of mind.

 

 

 

 

 

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Caring for the aged (the first of two posts on this subject)

Two-thirds of older and disabled people in England who turn to their local councils for help with care are turned away, figures show.  Only 144,000 of the requests for help resulted in them being admitted to care homes or given home help for tasks such as washing and dressing.  Of the remainder about 220,000 got short-term help, such as rehabilitation after discharge from hospital, and another 300,000 got low-level support such as walking aids and telecare. The rest either received nothing or were advised to seek help from charities, the NHS or from housing services.

Social care is not free, so all the above who are accepted into the system pay something towards the cost of their care,  with some covering the entire cost.  Only the poorest get financial help.  An estimated 1.5 million older people with care needs rely on family and friends for help.  One in ten older people faces bills in excess of £100,000 for care when they are old and need it.

There has been a steady year by year fall in the number of elderly people who are helped by social services.  The Local Government Association predicts if extra money is not put in there will be a shortfall of more than £4bn in care services by 2020 – and that is before the implications of the national living wage are taken into account.

An elderly relative, who my wife and I looked after,  was born with cerebral palsy. She was unable to look after herself at all.  For years Social Services visited her daily at home.  One day she received a letter from the local Council telling her that “Halleluyah!  The era of choice had dawned and she could choose what level of care she wanted!”  This was a lady who needed maximum care and visits three times a day, but, because she was in her own home, it cost less than in a nursing home.  She was, of course, quite unable to decide how to reply to the letter, whose subtext was that they offering reduced services, and which of these reduced services would she like?   While my wife and I were trying to find out what the implications were and telling the Council that the patient was totally helpless, she died.  It was a blessing, because the outlook was horribly grim.  This situation is and was re-played many times  all over the country, as local Councils, starved of funds, have to reduce services.  Meanwhile, the government talks about updating the Trident nuclear submarine fleet and bickers over Brexit, the self-inflicted wound.

Epicurus would suggest that the priority is the well-being of the the population and, among other humane objectives, ensuring that the elderly are treated decently and with rsepect.

 

Automating music composition

There is a computerised melody- making software , developed at the University of California, Santa Cruz, called ALYSIA, that is unusual in taking lyrics as its starting point and adding an automated tune. The system matches the metre of the melody with that of the lyrics. The originators hope to create a system capable of composing all aspects of a song on its own. They want to design a program able to generate the music, the lyrics, and ideally even the production and the singing by itself. At the moment the idea is to produce pop songs. (Gian Volpicelli, New Scientist)

Strange that. I really thought that was how modern pop was already produced. The days are long gone when Elvis and the Beatles made young teenagers openly weep as they reached their hearts and minds. Pop music today is so relentlessly samey it is surprising it is surviving.  It has been explained to me that the music is now less important than the words, if you can make them out. But a more important point is that melodies without accompaniments are pretty useless; the skill comes from an intimate knowledge of music theory and making music out of a tune.

I declare a personal interest: my wife and I compose piano and chamber music. I believe that if you are setting out to interpret emotions, feelings or even beatiful views in music, the melody comes from the human heart and imagination, not from a machine. In any case, it has been my wife’s task to turn my melodies into music, and this task takes both excellent judgment and a huge amount of learning and knowledge of composition. Composing could be reduced to automation, but human feeling and judgment should continue to trump computers.

Why is there this urge to automate everything?  Because it is now possible to, and that seems to be the only reason.  Will it make things, including music, better?  What is  “better”?

No one to recruit

To The Daily Telegraph
With Brexit, the problem for my structural engineering consultancy business is not the collapse of the construction industry. Far from it, our order book is overflowing. The problem is getting staff. Last year we advertised for civil engineering graduates and attracted 80 applications, only two resident in Britain. The same has been the case this year, with the most interest from very able and yet terminally unemployed fellow Europeans from Italy, Spain and Greece. They are enterprising and eager to work, and, frankly, Brexit without them would make life very difficult for us.
By contrast, the UK crop of youth is much less inspiring and seemingly sleepwalking into non-vocational higher education in the belief that employers will want them. We won’t. For us, the aftermath of Brexit raises serious questions about our education system and how it is failing to get the next British generation working. (M.H. Fisher, managing director, Pure Structures Ltd, Little Hadham, Hertfordshire, UK)

In both the UK and the US the problems are similar – the educational system is so poor that it’s hard to find well- trained local people. I believe that, in the British context, the problem dates back to the idiotic decision to encourage technical colleges and polytechnics to become universities. They then began to teach drama, history and the other arts subjects and watered down their technical offerings. What we should be doing is to have people take a basic BA and then go on to do high quality training at a “polytechnic” (most Germans don’t start serious jobs until their late twenties or beyond). Thus, in theory at least, they would have thinking and reasoning skills, be able to problem solve, but would also have valuable technical skills that companies need. The conversion to “universities” was a chapter in the stupid class war. It was perceived by the class warriors that technical schools were “inferior” to universities such as Bristol or Exeter, so they were “levelled up”. This was a lot of utter nonsense and has set Britain back behind other Western countries. Both types of further education have their place.

Is the United States in upheaval? No, I would call it a downheaval.

“If  you do not change direction, you may end up where you’re heading”.

To be fair, I think Trump does know where he is heading; he is consolidating the rule of the rich and the big corporations.  Question: when will the distressed people who voted for him realise that they have been conned?  At what point will they become aware that their champion is not their champion at all; that it is near impossible to bring back the old manufacturing jobs; that when he said he wanted to deport illegal immigrants what he also said (rather quietly) was that they would be deported but would be readmitted once they had gone through the proper procedures for re-entering the US and staying there permanently.  When will the Trump supporters wake up to the reality that the rich are now greatly richer, but that social security, Medicare  and pensions  are being privatised and at the mercy of bandits on Wall Street?  When will they spot that swathes of regulations designed to protect them at work and play have been scrapped and they no longer have recourse against bare subsistence wages, one year contracts, fewer holidays,  less sick leave, summary dismissal and all the ills of 19th Century capitalism?  One could go on, but the appointments usually signal the desired policies.

We have learned that the electorate is incredibly volatile.  Nothing would be surprising.  As Epicureans we should be calm, reflective and quietly advocate moderation.  We keep hoping Trump means well, but if it flies  like a bird, has feathers like a bird and tweets like  bird…………..