Trump’s first employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the economy has added 227,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is currently 4.8 percent. This is close to full employment. (Yes, thank you, Obama. Think of the mess he inherited).
So when the new Administration “supercharges” the economy with big handouts to the already super-rich, where will companies get the extra workers they are going to need? Of the American citizens out of work at present some have given up, some are physically unable to work, some have become druggies, but the greatest number are probably people in their late forties, fifties or early sixties who used to work in manufacturing. That old style of manufacturing has moved on to become much more automated and based on electronics.
Sitting at home the the older people have become effectively de-skilled and need to be trained for jobs that are needed now, not for jobs that have long gone. How will this be done? In other countries the government spends tons of money re-training workers, with mixed success (but at least they try). Not in the US. The idea is that when you are young you go to college, get a marketable skill and that will see you through life. This is now nonsense, and needs a fast re-think. But Republicans don’t want to raise taxes to pay for things re-training in middle age . They don’t like paying taxes for other people’s kids to be educated, let alone older people. Betsy deVoss, the pick for Secretary of Education wants everyone in private, fee-paying, schools, so how will the financially struggling, out-of-work guys get re-trained? Looks like stalemate.
Of course, we know the answer – immigration! Bingo.
As a CEO I introduced hi-tech machinery into a factory where the (middle aged ) workers had, up till then used hand skills for their work. They managed perfectly well with the new gear, and in no time they had mastered the programming and the electronics. But they needed training (and patience on my part!). The question is, will companies take on the older workers at a decent, living wage( that helps pay a mortgage) and allow them to learn, or will they employ you immigrants, hi-tech savvy, at lower wages?
“Trump is ready to try anything to lure manufacturing firms back to the US. And he may succeed: indeed, many have returned already. But here’s the rub. They’re doing so precisely because the rapid advances in automation enable them to shed labour: “a robot is even cheaper than a Chinese worker, so ‘reshoring’ is a rational choice”. The notion that our political leaders have the power to restore old-fashioned, secure jobs is one that unites voters of the hard-right and the Left. Trump “may be about to test that idea to destruction”. (John Harris, The Guardian)