The signs are that life for British citizens is about to get a lot tougher. After two-and-a-half years of modest economic recovery, rising inflation (due to hit 3% later this year) and stagnant wage growth will start eroding the real value of people’s pay packets. That, in turn, will have a damaging effect on growth and confidence: the “latest assessment among the forecasters surveyed monthly by Consensus Economics is that growth will slow from 1.7% this year to 1.3% in 2018, with unemployment set to rise from 4.7% to 5.2%”. To make matters worse, figures last week showed the biggest quarterly fall in retail sales for seven years. The pressure on struggling public services is also mounting: NHS spending is set to rise by just 0.5% a year over the next few years, “lower even than the 1.2% annual growth in the last Parliament”.
This is without the threat of companies moving out of the UK altogether. They might leave residual offices and all of the City of London denizens will not disappear over- ight, but Brexit has to mean a loss of jobs, even if trade agreements are signed. These cannot take effect for years, even if they materialise. Meanwhile, Poles will drift back to Poland and Portuguese back to Portugal etc. as wages stagnate and prices rise. Then where will we get trained and educated workers who can do electricity and plumbing? How will industry’s costs ot rise?
No, rational politicians, if there are any, would scrap Brexit and get back into the EU and try to reform the things that don’t work. This is what they should have been doing all along. The gormless Hooray Henrys who caused all this, incapable as they are to see or plan, should be retired to grumble.
From the BBc website, just to reinforce the importance of the EU to British industry:
Production of new UK cars fell by almost 10% last month compared with a year ago, latest industry figures show.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said 136,119 new cars were built in May, 9.7% fewer than the same month in 2016.
However, in May 2016 output had risen by more than 26% to the highest total for the month in more than a decade.
The SMMT said carmakers were now set to ramp up production of new models, with exports the main driver of demand.
‘Strong’ demand
Some 576,556 new cars have been shipped abroad since January, a 0.8% increase year-on-year. although production for overseas markets fell 9% in May.
Almost 80% of all cars made in Britain are exported, with more than half going to Europe.
Meanwhile, production for the home market fell 12.8% in May, with 153,199 cars destined for UK showrooms.
“After a record start to the year, car production in the UK has slowed as production lines gear up for a range of new models,” said SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes.
“Global demand is strong and exports remain the driving force for British car production volumes in the UK.
“Maintaining our current open trade links with Europe, our biggest market, and further developing global markets is vital for this sector.”. (BBC News)
The trouble is that most Britons want to leave the EU, even if they see the referendum decision as a mistake. Some polls show that most people would rather we had voted to remain, but there has been no significant shift in public opinion for the government to credibly ignore the referendum result on the basis that it’s what the public want. For Britain to stay in the EU, there would have to be a decisive shift in favour of staying in, regardless of the referendum result. This isn’t going to happen, because most people, Leave or Remain, believe it is the government’s democratic duty to carry out the referendum result. The proportion of the population who want the result ignored or a 2nd referendum is very small.
You quite rightly point out that the British economy is worsening. But I think for most people to turn against Brexit, the economy would have to worsen further. I wouldn’t want that to happen, because in a couple of years’ time I will be looking for a graduate job, and I want the economy to be as healthy as can be. My only hope is that I was totally wrong, the Brexiters were right- Britain is going to be fantastically wealthy outside the EU, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. I hope that trading on WTO terms and crashing out without a deal won’t be the calamity I think it will be. I want Britain to succeed regardless of the decisions of its leaders. But I can’t relinquish my critical faculties in the name of patriotism and boundless optimism.