Rend your clothes, put on sackcloth and pour ashes on your head. Prime Minister May has actually done it. I had hoped that sober minds might, at the last minute, prevail and steer the government away from a long-term disaster that probably means the break-up of the UK as well as weakening Europe. But alas, she has done it, “it” being to formally tell the EU that Britain is leaving.
Now we are faced with the British government’s so-called “Great Reform Bill”, which, as I understand it, writes all applicable EU law into the British statute books in preparation for dismantling it at leisure at a later time (the mind boggles!). I would suggest that another name for it is the “Return England to Obscurity” bill.
Before Julius Caesar, Britain could be viewed through the mist and rain from across the Channel, but no one knew much about it, except it had some tin mines and was populated by Angles. It was otherwise deeply unimportant. Brexit takes us back to England in the days of the Roman Republic, or, alternatively, to the 14th Century, when the whole English GNP was approximately the same as the province of Anjou, and the people running it were totally clueless barons.
Within my own lifetime Britain had an empire (admittedly on life support) stretching around the world. Even before I can think of dying stupid, out-of-touch politicians will have reduced the country to within the borders of England (losing Northern Ireland to the Republic might prove the sole bonus), while lonely businessmen wander the world begging for a chance to sell things – anything – now that our best and closest market will offer no advantages.
Meanwhile, internally, those who voted to Leave will find that they have been shamefully misled. The Poles and other trained Continental workers will still be there (the corporations will see to that), but the rights and safeguards for the people will have been dismantled. The only people to have won will be the corrupt foreign money launderers and dubious multi-millionaires, bribed by the British government to relocate to London in return for derisory tax rates. Outside the South East we can look forward to no investment, fewer jobs, lousy public services, declining health and more poverty. This will happen over the ten years. The current reasonable economy is a temporary mirage.
This is how “great” Brexit will turn out to be, along with its accompanying legislation. As in the US, the population is being subjected to one of the most outstanding con jobs in history.
Epicureans can extract little ataraxia from all this, but we have to try.
When the referendum result was announced, I believed there was still hope. The Conservatives would try to unite the country, for the sake of electability if nothing else. But instead Theresa May has capitulated to the most extreme Brexiteers. Before the referendum, the Leave campaign used Norway and Switzerland as examples of success outside the EU. But now we’re told that following those countries constitutes a ‘soft’ Brexit and therefore must be rejected. The Leave campaign lied about what sort of Brexit we were going to have. Had they been honest, and said they were campaigning for a hard Brexit and would settle for nothing less, the result would’ve been different.
More worryingly, the public don’t seem to be punishing May for putting ideology above economic sanity. The Conservative lead over Labour is considerable, and continues to widen. Now of course there are reasons other than Brexit that contribute to that. Labour’s leadership is weak and the party seems lost in the post-Brexit era. The Liberal Democrats are still tainted by their record in coalition. The continued popularity of the SNP in Scotland has eaten away at what would otherwise have been Labour support. But the fact that an increasing number of people seem to believe that the government is acting in their interests, and not for the wishes of fanatics, shows what a sorry state Britain is in. Worst of all, UKIP still have roughly 11% support, despite having already achieved what their party was founded to do. Their only MP has left the party because it is too anti-immigration and anti-liberal; Carswell only joined UKIP because he wanted to moderate them, to boost Leave’s chances of winning the referendum. UKIP’s retention of support given that its only distinct policy is opposition to immigration, is a sign of how prejudice much of the British electorate has become.
Right now, it feels like Britain lacks an opposition. The Dutch election showed that liberalism can still be an election winner. A majority of people oppose a hard Brexit, and a majority can be persuaded to oppose Brexit altogether when it becomes clear what leaving will look like. But opposition to the Eurosceptic right is hopelessly divided. Many Conservative Remain voters stick by their party because they agree with its policies other than Brexit, like its economic stance. They see the EU as a mechanism that makes capitalism work better, by reducing protectionism and harmonising regulations. They are unsympathetic to the Left’s desire for a ‘social Europe,’ believing the EU to be bulwark against socialism, just like it was a bulwark against Communism during the Cold War and its aftermath. On the other hand, there are many people who voted Labour in 2015, but are now intend to vote Conservative. These are typically working and lower-middle class people who have disproportionately suffered from austerity measures, but will vote Conservative because they approve of Brexit and don’t approve of Labour’s social liberalism. Any alternative to the Conservatives will need the support of both groups of people if it is to have any hope of winning an election. But policies that appeal to one will inevitably alienate the other, and Labour’s membership seems equally hostile to both. Sometimes I really feel that there’s no hope at all.
Excellent stuff, Owen! But try not to be too despondent . Despondency is for people my age. You will have a chance to to great things , and my wife and I hope we will still be around to see you do them! If enough people come to think like you the future should be good, but it takes commitment and hard work.