Climate change is not a scam!

Like many other climate-vulnerable nations across the globe, Bangladesh is trying to save lives, shore up healthcare systems, and cushion the economic shock for millions of people, all while avoiding fiscal collapse.

But this is not a cry for help; it is a warning. For while other countries may be less exposed to the climate crisis, they will not be able to escape its destructive force for long. Countries more fortunate than mine should take a long, hard look at what we are battling. Recent research suggests rising sea levels will force hundreds of millions of people to abandon low-lying coastal cities worldwide by mid-century. Will the global community act in time to avert this catastrophe?

The climate crisis is a national security threat to the US. We already see the effects.

Our climate emergency and Covid-19 are global threats. Both were predictable, and we could have – should have – done much more to minimize the risks. But now that they are upon us, the best way to respond, surely, is through concerted international action.

Both the climate crisis and the pandemic are complex problems with many ramifications. They will either be solved collectively, or not at all. It will be futile to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to secure a Covid-19 vaccine for one nation alone, if the pandemic is allowed to rage elsewhere. And it will be similarly pointless for a majority of nations to rein in their emissions and build more sustainable economies if the world’s largest emitters do not do the same.

41% of global insect species have declined over the past decade, threatening a ‘catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems.’

The G20 countries are responsible for about 80% of total global emissions, while the bottom 100 countries only account for 3.5%. The world cannot successfully tackle the climate challenge without significant action from everyone.

The 2015 Paris agreement is still our best chance to contain global warming and limit its most pernicious effects. To date, 189 countries have ratified a treaty that commits them to collectively cut emissions to stop global temperatures from rising by more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, and to try to limit the rise to 1.5C if possible. That last, more ambitious goal was proposed by the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF)– a group of 48 countries disproportionately affected by a warming planet, Bangladesh among them. CVF nations have been at the forefront of climate adaptation as well as climate change, promoting initiatives such as building stronger shelters against cyclones and replanting mangrove forests to protect coastal communities from sea surges. In acknowledgment of this important work, the Global Center on Adaptation will open an office in Dhaka this month to extend these best practices across South Asia.

The world’s poorest, most vulnerable countries to climate change have kept their side of the bargain. The rich world has not. International funding for climate adaptation is still far short of what is needed. Furthermore, new, more ambitious climate initiatives are unlikely to succeed without greater leadership and world-class technology and pioneering climate research that has delivered so many ground-breaking solutions to date.

If we don’t increase our ambition, we will all lose out. As many countries and companies can attest, finding low-carbon solutions and minimizing climate risks are the best ways of building more resilient, more efficient and more competitive economies. We all benefit from thriving trading partners in a low-carbon resilient world. Surely no one is in favor of the alternative – a fractured global order in which even rich countries are impoverished by the destructive force of global warming.

The climate crisis, Covid-19 and its economic fallout are crying out for international leadership and cooperation. No country should turn its back on the rest of the world at this time. At the next UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, countries must commit to enhancing their nationally determined contributions and ultimately our collective existence. (Sheikh Hasina, prime minister of Bangladesh and chair of the Climate Vulnerable Forum)

Easements as tax breaks for the wealthy

Conservation easements grant write-offs to multiple partners, each buying a share in a tract of land. This is a way the very rich avoid paying their fair share of tax, saving $2 in taxes for every $1 paid for the tax shelter, according to a Senate report. It costs about $10.6 billion of tax revenue every year, revenue lost to the public purse. All the investors have to do is promise not to develop the already-protected land, which is usually in remote and sparsely populated spots.

My comment: The good news is that this tax avoidance scam is attracting the attention of of the IRS and lawmakers. However, reflect on the unhealthy relationship between the very rich and the aforesaid lawmakers. (Anyone like a bet with me as to whether these write-offs and other similar schemes are finally made illegal by Congress? Not the remotest chance. Ed.)

My take: Armies of accountants are employed finding apparently legal scams for rich people anxious to avoid tax. This is all part of the egregious inequality in the US, an inequality that has helped get us into the present political and social crisis.

Report on the author’s peace of mind

I have never made blog entries personal (well, not often!) but I feel like mentioning the fragile state of my ataraxia, better known as peace of mind.

I spent part of my youth studying pre-war nazi and fascist takeovers in the 1920s and 1930’s, and subsequent events. My university tutor warned that, given the right economic and political conditions, similar takeovers by “strongmen” (or weak men with inflated egos), could readily appear again, and that democracy, however imperfect, can be lost if you have huge discrepancies of wealth and poverty, and a “lumpen-proletariat” with abundant grievances and lousy education and job opportunities.

I never thought for a moment that such a thing could happen twice in my life, and certainly not in the US. This time there is no Roosevelt or United States (as it used to be) to rescue democracy – we have offended and disillusioned all other countries except our watchful enemies.

If there is any parallel at all with the past then we have hard times ahead. Let us hope that the momentum is towards support of the Constitution and the law, and that the coddling of the President stops – quickly.

Lower emissions owing to coronavirus

Global carbon emissions are likely to see their steepest fall this year since the second world war, according to researchers who say coronavirus lockdown measures have already cut them by nearly a fifth. But the team warns that the dramatic drop won’t slow climate change.

The first peer-reviewed analysis of the pandemic’s impact on emissions predicts they will fall between 4.2 and 7.5 per cent on last year. A rise of around 1 per cent had been expected for 2020 before the crisis.
This is an unprecedented drop.

Researchers have found that restrictions imposed around the world had cut daily emissions by 17 per cent, but this only takes the world back to 2006 levels, a sign of how much emissions have grown in recent years.

The reductions have been fairly uniform globally, but the team cautions that the precipitous drop will make little dent in future global warming. If emissions go down 5 per cent this year overall, given that climate change is a cumulative problem, it basically makes little or no difference at all. The world is still on course for at least 3°C of warming. The UK Met Office expects a tiny dip in atmospheric CO2 levels this year, but projects that they will still be the highest in at least 2 million years.

A report last year found that emissions must fall by 7.6 per cent every year this decade to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of checking warming at 1.5°C.
Governments need to support green measures and address fossil fuel industries or emissions will simply go up to their previous levels .
(Journal reference: Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x
Adam Vaughan, New Scientist).

My comment: Can you imagine any government at the moment having the determination to tackle the problem vigorously? A well-meaning Biden government, for a start, will be blocked by the Senate and the Supreme Court by the looks of it.

Tropical storms

Hurricane Harvey caused catastrophic flooding in 2017, killing 68 people and costing $125 billion in damages. 100 high-resolution simulations of how tropical cyclones behave in three types of conditions have been conducted – those between 1950 and 2000, those similar to the present and also various future scenarios. Conclusion: as the world warms, there are going to be a lot more slow-moving tropical cyclones like Harvey, according to the models.

Obviously, a slow-moving tropical cyclone dumps far more rain in one place than a fast-moving storm of a similar size and strength. The winds can also do more damage, because they batter structures for longer.

Harvey, for instance, dumped more than a metre of rain in parts of the Houston area. Other recent storms, including Hurricane Florence in 2018 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019 have also been slow-moving, leading to suggestions that climate change is increasing the odds of slow-moving storms. We all get poorer every time a climate disaster strikes.

We have a marked slowdown of storms as the world warms, due to a poleward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds. It is these prevailing winds that push cyclones along and determine how fast they travel. This increases the risk of storms causing extreme flooding that, among other things, could break dams and spread pollution from factories and farms.

Other studies suggest that warming will lead to tropical cyclones becoming stronger, producing more rainfall, intensifying faster – giving people less time to prepare – and forming in and affecting a wider area than they have previously. (Journal reference: Science Advances, DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610, Michael Le Page, NewScientist. 11April 2020)

My comment: Now comes news of disappearing beaches in the West Indies as the sea level rises. Most Caribbean islands thrive on tourism. No beaches, no income.