The UK General Election: A brief but definitive guide

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I must apologise for my last post on the UK General Election. It was an excessively long, rambling piece that covered everything I was thinking about regarding British politics at the time. I was angry, despondent and confused. I felt so let down by politicians on all sides, that I failed to come to a definitive conclusion having ranted about the deplorable state of affairs for so long.

Having put my emotions to one side, in a Stoic but not necessarily Epicurean fashion, I feel I can now give a succinct guide on how to vote in the British General Election, or at least how to feel should any one party gain power. I will then give my own personal view on who to vote for, though I must concur with last month’s exposition insomuch as I don’t believe there are any good options. I regard Brexit to be a catastrophic error of judgement on behalf of the British people, yet I don’t believe the decision to leave can be reversed. The increasing inflation, slowed GDP growth and increasing irrelevance on the world stage we are already seeing, are but a small preview of what is to come.

If your primary concern is climate change, then there’s a solid case to vote Green. Climate change threatens the whole of humanity, and can only be mitigated through decisive government action. This means strong curbs on carbon emissions, including a carbon tax, and a ban on new carbon-based energy sources, particularly arctic drilling and fracking. The Greens are also very socially liberal, and propose an economic policy based on social justice and a responsibility to help the poorest in society. My worry with the Greens is twofold: that due to the single-member plurality voting system, a vote for them will hand seats to the Conservatives, and that their policies are unaffordable, however good their intentions. But if you live in a safe Conservative seat, a vote for the Greens is a good way of expressing dissatisfaction with the establishment’s authoritarianism and disregard for the importance of environmental issues.

Quite frankly UKIP are a dead party. Since the UK voted to leave the EU, the party has lost its raison d’etre. That doesn’t mean that UKIP’s policies have become less popular. Rather, the Conservative Party has moved to the Right on Brexit and the social issues, in order to appeal to UKIP’s voters. In response to Theresa May’s support for a ‘hard’ Brexit, UKIP has resorted to blatant Islamophobia and open anti-immigrant sentiment. The polls show the party will be punished for this, and quite rightly so.

I have very mixed feelings about the Liberal Democrats. On the one hand, I admire their stance on Brexit. Aside from the Greens, they are the only unapologetically pro-European party electable across Britain. Their support for a second referendum on the final terms of the Brexit negotiations, with an option to remain in the EU, is certainly tempting. But on all other issues, the Liberal Democrats’ attempts at reform are piecemeal. The UK is clearly a country which desires radical change, as the Brexit vote demonstrated. In response, the Liberal Democrats have promised effectively cosmetic reforms to politics, which will effectively amount to nothing. As a result, the Liberal Democrats have become the pro-establishment party, rather than recognising fundamental reforms as necessary. I would only vote for them if there is a chance that should they lose, an extreme and prejudice candidate would become an MP. I would not vote for them as a first preference.

I understand that there are many Epicureans who may desire independence for Scotland or even Wales. I don’t believe that a longing for national self-determination is inherently a bad thing. But in practice, the SNP and Plaid Cymru have to be honest about what the consequences of independence would be. At least in the short to medium term, independence would mean very harsh austerity measures for both Scotland and Wales, because neither nation would be any longer eligible for English subsidies via the Barnet Formula. They would immediately face large budget deficits, comparatively weak economies and a low credit rating. If you believe that the cause of independence is worth making the working class worse off for the foreseeable future, than be honest and say that. But if you don’t, you ought not to vote SNP or Plaid Cymru.

The state of the governing Conservative Party is frankly frightening. Many in the Conservative ranks believe that leaving the EU will have no severe economic consequences, even if there are no provisions for continued trade agreements and service relations. This so-called ‘clean Brexit’, which would result in Britain facing substantial tariffs and barriers to services, would make everyone worse off, but Britain more so than the EU. No amount of free trade deals with the rest of the world could realistically offset such a loss. To suggest that Brexit cannot go badly for Britain is madness. It is disingenuous in the extreme to suggest to liberal swing voters that Brexit will result in a more open and globalised Britain, while at the same time appealing to former UKIP voters with promises of vastly reduced immigration and a return to the values of the 1950s. It is certain that if the Conservatives win the election, a substantial proportion of the electorate will feel immensely disappointed.  The Conservatives have also abandoned their economic principles. By accepting that intervention in the market is necessary, such as their promise to have workers on company boards, or their proposals to cap energy prices, they have essentially lost the argument about the virtues of free market capitalism. The Conservative manifesto explicitly rejects the individualism of  the libertarian right. But then if market interventionism is good, why not intervene in the market properly, and give public services the funding they need? Like the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives promise an unsatisfactory compromise of a policy programme that will end up pleasing no one.

The Labour Party is full of faults. It is hopelessly divided between its socialist and more moderate wings. It has unrealistic proposals on how to balance the budget, which is doesn’t seem to regard as a priority. It promises big spending increases as the answer to virtually every problem, when in a globalised world more comprehensive and imaginative solutions are required. I find its appetite for class warfare distasteful. As someone who is part of a family that earns more than £80 000 a year, I don’t want to be labelled as part of the problem. I also don’t agree with Jeremy Corbyn’s foreign policy views, particularly on the Northern Ireland conflict, the Falklands Wars, or his view of the War on Terror as a neo-imperial phenomenon, rather than a well-intentioned attempt to deal with radical Islamist terrorism.

Having said that, the Labour Party is by far the most authentic force in British politics at the moment. It is unapologetically committed to its brand of socialism. It is no longer embarrassed by its trade union roots, or its dedication to the wellbeing of the working class. Jeremy Corbyn has run a campaign relatively free of spin, lies, exaggeration or fear-mongering. True to his word, he has presented a genuine and decisive alternative to Tory rule, using the language of the ordinary working man- not the jargon and politically correct platitudes of many professional politicians. And regardless of the result on Thursday, he has at least somewhat succeeded. A month ago, Theresa May seemed unassailable. But now, many predict that the Conservatives will lose seats, perhaps even an overall majority. That is a formidable achievement, one that should not be downplayed, even taking into account May’s own unforced errors. It is with considerable reservation and nervousness, that I endorse Labour for this election. Britain should at least give an unadulterated form of socialism a chance. I am far from certain as to how successful it would be. But I am certain that the unambitious reforms of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, the soft bigotry of UKIP, and the unrealistic utopianism of the Greens- would all end in failure. The working class is dying for radical change. Now, we as voters, must choose to deliver it.

 

Best of the Week #1

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As I promised last Monday, here is a new series I’ll be trialing called Best of the Week. It’s basically a list of the best opinion articles I’ve read over the week- a very brief summary of them, and a one-sentence reaction to them. I’ve often been asked where I get my news from, and particularly in the era of ‘fake news,’ its important to read truthful and accurate stories. Having said that, not all of the articles I’ll present will reflect my own views. But perhaps they’ll be useful in understanding how others think, or simply a very compelling argument for an alternative point of view. Let me know what you think of this series- whether you’d want it to continue, any suggestions for improvements.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/14/is-labour-manifesto-fantasy-land-quite-the-opposite. Probably the most compelling case for a Labour government I’ve read. Elliot argues that a desire for the status quo is madness- things simply have to change, however audacious they may seem. I share Labour’s current appetite for radical thinking, but running large deficits isn’t revolutionary, it’s irresponsible.

https://www.vox.com/2017/6/1/15726726/trump-paris-climate-agreement-republicans. An excellent explanation that not only does Republican climate change denial predate Trump, the party establishment shares his scepticism of the need for governments to take action to prevent climate change. It’s important to emphasise that Trump is the symptom, not the problem itself. The Republican establishment played a key role in his rise.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/well-done-jeremy-corbyn-for-being-the-least-shrill-person-in-politics/. A fantastic piece on the tendency for politicians to use hyperbole in recent years, which is why Corbyn neglecting to deploy apocalyptic scenarios about the prospect of a Tory win is so admirable.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/speakerscorner/2017/06/brexit-and-election an analysis on how trade has never been more important to the British economy, and an exposing of the myth that trade will be bolstered from Britain leaving the Customs Union.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/opinion/europe-nato-defense.html?ref=opinion&_r=0. Guy Verhofstadt outlines the failures and inefficiencies of current European defence policy, and how a European Defence Union may address those issues. I agree with Verhofstadt’s desire for closer co-operation on defence matters, but I would be wary about having too many foreign policy decisions taken at the European level. While I’m a firm believer in the European project generally, there is obviously an upper limit to integration, and defence is one area where integration may go too far.

More on climate change

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Older and Republican-leaning Americans think the April “March for Science” in Washington was a waste of time, according to a poll of 1012 adults by the Pew Research Center in Washington DC. Sixty per cent of Republicans and 54 per cent of those aged 65 and up dismissed the march as pointless, whereas a majority of both Democrats and younger adults thought it would increase public support for science.

I haven’t seen statistics on the subsequent Climate March, in which my wife and I participated, but it’s a safe bet that the same older and Republican-leaning Americans thought that was a waste of time as well. So thorough hss been the climate skeptical propaganda, in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence, that Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord will be shrugged off by all too many ill-informed people who voted for the man, denying that they were contributing to planetary disaster for their grandchildren. Any more words fail me.

Learning about climate change, (1 of 2 posts on climate change)

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A comprehensive survey of science teachers at middle and high schools across the US, conducted by the journal “Science”, finds that teachers generally devote a paltry 1 to 2 hours to the topic of climate change, and despite the fact 97 per cent of experts agree climate change is mainly human-caused, many teachers still “teach the controversy”, suggesting a sizeable “consensus gap” exists. The survey showed seven in 10 teachers mistakenly believe that at least a fifth of experts dispute human-caused climate change.

Vested interests in fossil fuels, led by the Koch brothers and Exxon, have spent tens of millions of dollars to create the impression of a consensus gap, orchestrating a public relations campaign aimed at attacking the science and the scientists, and confusing the public about the reality and threat of climate change. They also created a partisan political divide on the issue, most evident in the US.

Our children will bear the brunt of the climate crisis, battling coastal inundation, extreme weather, withering droughts and devastating floods. We owe it to them not only to give them the facts, but to help them clean up the mess that we created.
(Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University).

This nonsense about the science of climate change is not confined to schools. You encounter it frequently, although rarely among well-informed and educated people. Members of Congress, supplicants at the tables of the oil and gas companies, are particularly guilty. I think there should be a memorial set up on the Mall in Washington DC. The monument should read

“To the irresponsible, greedy and short-sighted people who fought the idea of man-made climate change, and thus bequeathed to future generations flood, tempest, starvation, drought, unpredictable weather, and mass migration. Their companies and CEO’s are listed below. May They be forgiven.”

The Islamist threat

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A propos the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations:

“These are not an organizations that can destroy the United States. But they can hurt us and they can hurt our people and our families. And so I can understand why people are worried. The most damage they can do, though, is if they start changing how we live and what our values are.” (President Obama, NPR on Dec. 21, 2015).

What worries me is that in combating the Islamists and throwing out large numbers of Latinos, the new American Administration will undermine the social trust of the country and the very freedoms and liberties enshrined in the Constitution. Already, the entry ban on moslems from certain countries sends a bad message around the world, as does the “wall” and the big increase in deportations. Will the US remain a moderate and tolerant country, or go into a selfish funk? Obama was calm and rational in tumultuous and troubling times; now we have something very different that appeals to our more unpleasant, selfish and suspicious instincts, and calls into question whether we still retain the old values nationally.

I cannot help returning in my mind to the days of the 1960s, when America was generous, trusting, and Americans themselves actually wanted to get to know you, hear your views and listen to opposing points of view. Of course, it’s not hard to look back with rose-coloured spectacles on your nose and ignore the vitriol spewed forth on the rightwing press. Conspiracy theories were just as common then (one couple told me in all seriousness that the UN was contrlling the water supply and starting to poison it. The UN attracted particular venom). It is also true that racism was shocking at that time. But most people still ardently believed in freedom, the Constitution and plain, honest dealing. Society was more equal than today, and middle class people were earning good money. All this has changed; intolerance and hostility towards the opposing political party can be felt at all levels. How do you set the clock back?

What can be said about America can be said about Britain, the object of the ideological murders of harmless teenagers in Manchester. Unexpectedly, there is the same shock and horror, but more resignation and less hysteria than expected. No spontaneous assaults in the street, no revenge murders etc. There are moslem women on the street in our neighbourhood, their heads covered, but as afar as I know, no vitriol directed at them. That, at least, is a blessing.