Making decisions

We spend an inordinate amount of time, and a tremendous amount of energy, making choices between equally attractive options in everyday situations. The problem is, that while they may be equally attractive, there are often tradeoffs that require compromise.

If these mundane decisions drag on our time and energy, think about the bigger ones we need to make, in organizations, all the time. Which products should we pursue and which should we kill? Who should I hire or fire? Should I initiate that difficult conversation?  If so , when should I do it? And how should I start? Should I call them or see them in person or email them? Should I do it publicly or in private? How much information should I share? And on and on . . .

Here are three suggested methods of dealing with decisions:

1.  Use habits as a way to reduce the number of silly little daily decisions. For example: get into the habit of getting up at a particular time in the morning.  Decision-making energy should be saved for more important  things.

2.  Use  ” if/then” thinking to routinize unpredictable choices. For example, let’s say someone constantly interrupts me and I’m not sure how to respond. My if/then rule might be: if the person interrupts me two times in a conversation, then I will say something.

3.  For decisions about complex unpredictable things that some people ponder for weeks and get hung up on, simply set a deadline – say 15 minutes, not a minute more.  The time you save by not deliberating pointlessly will pay massive dividends, reducing your anxiety and letting  you get on with other things.  (Adapted from an article by Jennifer Maravillas, NBR).

I once met a very successful lawyer from New Zealand.  He said, ” A lot of anxiety is generated about decisions.  It’s better to make a decision than no decision at all.  Just think through the pros  and cons, then decide and never waste time regretting what you decided”.  I may have made some clunkers of decisions over the years, but I can’t remember ever thinking, “that was a really stupid thing to do; I wish I could turn back the clock.”  Ah, the clock.  yes, I agree with Ms. Maravillas: give youself 15 minutes, decide, and get on with your life.

A house divided against itself cannot stand: Why America is exceptionally uncivil.

When Abraham Lincoln famously said, “A house divided against itself cannot stand,” he was of course referring to the issue of slavery. Whether a human being could be considered property of another, was an issue so contentious, Lincoln believed the federal government ought to uphold the dignity of every person, even if it meant going to war. Now there were a multitude of reasons for the Civil War, slavery being a key one. But overall there was a recognition on both sides that there are limits to tolerating different moral outlooks, albeit within a federal system that allows for such differences.

Unlike during the Civil War, there is no equivalent of slavery as a single, irreconcilably obnoxious institution today. Instead, what is tearing America apart is a difference of world views. Amongst voters, more than 40% support a man who holds the norms of a functioning liberal democracy in complete contempt. Trump wants to use libel laws to silence the press, who he deems  “enemies of the people.” He wants to bring back torture worse than waterboarding, because he believes some people deserve to be tortured. His criticism of the judiciary is so disproportionate, even his own appointee, Neil Gorsuch, felt the need to speak out. In short, what Trump and his supporters want is a de facto revolution. They reject constitutional principles of limited government and due process, however fervently they claim otherwise. Instead, they would empower President Trump to do as he pleased, disregarding all opposition as illegitimate. No longer are political adversaries people with mere difference of opinion, they are unpatriotic, evil people who ought to be totally sidelined.

So when non-Trump America is faced with such uncompromising vitriol, it’s inevitable that their response will be ugly. A good example is liberals’ response to Milo Yiannopoulos, a pro-Trump campaigner, who spends his days writing inflammatory articles for Breitbart, or picking on people he deems to be ‘social justice warriors’. When Milo went on liberal comedian Bill Maher’s show, fellow guest Larry Wilmore completely lost his temper, and exploded in a fit of rage. Whether it was Milo or Larry Wilmore who was in the right is beside the point. The world views of the Trumpists and progressives are so far apart, they are incapable of having a civil dialogue. Though there may be exceptions, this is generally the rule.

Of course, many academics (including some of my lecturers) would challenge the notion that the decline of American civility is due to increased ideological polarisation on the basis that polarisation is largely a myth. They point out that most Americans identify as moderates. Ideological congruence is rare, and disproportionately found amongst elites. They are joined by naive socialists like Bernie Sanders, who believe most people share his vision for a Nordic-style welfare state on American soil, and thus only vote for self-interested billionaires like Trump because the Democrats didn’t promise enough government spending.

Both the hopeful academics and the democratic socialists are wrong. The former fail to consider that more informed voters vote more regularly, and the more informed tend to be more polarised. Even if most voters are centrist, they certainly aren’t putting pressure on their representatives to behave accordingly. Amongst Democrats, most want the party to be more progressive, even if they voted for Clinton. In particular, most of the energy and dynamism was behind the Sanders campaign, as could be seen at his rallies, which drew thousands of people each. Similarly, the Trump campaign generated far more enthusiasm than the campaigns of relative centrists like Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Even if the median voter is in the centre, there clearly aren’t very many median voters who engage in political activism or vote in primaries.

Sanders and his supporters are equally deluded. Granted, many Trump voters were hopelessly misinformed, but not as misinformed as to vote for a man who wants to dramatically cut the taxes of the wealthy, on the basis that the Democrats didn’t want to raise taxes on the wealthy by enough. The reason why Clinton lost wasn’t because she wasn’t socialist enough, but because she was seen as too corrupt and out of touch by the American working class; it was a question of character, not policy. During the primary season, both Sanders and Trump drew large crowds, and many pundits believed both crowds wanted the same thing. This false equivalence turned out to be inaccurate: Trump supporters liked the fact that Trump embodied traditional American capitalism, Sanders supporters liked Sanders’ holistic rejection of America’s current economic model, even in a society where ‘socialism’ is still associated with the ‘Godless Communism’ of the USSR.  Now Sanders is entitled to his views, provided he has the intellectual honesty to admit they are well outside the mainstream. He should stop pretending he speaks from some silent majority and come clean. Nordic-style socialism would be almost as radical a departure from America’s traditions as the authoritarianism Trump and his followers espouse.

So since American civility will continue to be at rock-bottom levels for the foreseeable future, America may have to learn from Lincoln as to what ought to be done. If a house divided against itself cannot stand, the house must be rebuilt, or else it will collapse. There are a few solutions I consider to be worthy of Lincoln’s radicalism:

  1. Radical devolution. The Federal Government would cease to have such a broad policy coverage. Federal welfare programs, intervention in healthcare, and social security systems would be abolished. It would then be up to individual states to finance and administer them. So Vermont could become the North American Denmark, and Alabama would be an Evangelical version of Poland. Only defence, the US dollar, the federal justice system, immigration and a few other minor functions would remain in federal hands. This would allow democratic socialists to make real progress in achieving their goals, without having to pretend a majority of the country supports them. Equally, fiscal conservatives would be held directly responsible were they to take away people’s healthcare coverage, and couldn’t blame their opponents. The only trouble would be the abandonment of vulnerable minorities, such as the large black population living in the Deep South- who would have to suffer the consequences of Republican policies, without ever being able to outvote the white, conservative majority.
  2. The break up of the Union. Its clear the Union isn’t working, so its reasonable to question its existence. There are two ways this could work. There could be a straightforward partition into two states: one with the liberal Northeast and West Coast, the other with the former Confederacy and most of the Midwest. The problem with this is that bits of each country may be cut off from one another. So instead, there could be multiple countries with greater geographical coherence. New England would be a viable independent state. California could certainly do it on its own. In this scenario, the Federal Government would be a bit like the EU- there to maintain free trade, freedom of goods, services and possibly people, as well as perhaps a common currency. But ultimate sovereignty would like in the hands of the new countries. The problem here would be the immediate economic shock of losing the Union. Unlike option 1, new constitutions would have to be written. But like option 1, there’s still the problem of permanent, vulnerable minorities.
  3. A new political party system, enabled by proportional representation. This option is based on the reasonable belief that America has been failed not only by its two parties, but by the two party system, which fails to represent the vast array of different beliefs a country of 318 million people has. Under a proportional representation system, no party would have a majority, so policies would be the result of coalition building, just like in most of the rest of the developed world. This ought to appeal to progressives, who constantly talk about the Nordic welfare state, while ignoring its pluralistic, consensus-based political culture. It would also end the Republican party’s divisions between the Trumpists, the Christian social conservatives, the economic liberals (Chamber of Commerce, Wall St Journal), and the moderates. Voters would be given a greater choice at the ballot box. Having said that, the current system of single-member districts would have to change, and there is no consensus on what the alternative would be.

Overall, its clear America is in dire straights. The coarseness of the dialogue in political discourse nowadays is shameful. Its caused by fundamental ideational divisions within the American polity, that cannot be resolved within the system as we know it. While I’m aware of the many flaws in the three solutions, I hope this post promotes radical thinking.

Next Monday, something non-political.

Will many small American colleges fail? No.3 of 3 posts

About 40% of American colleges enroll 1000 or fewer students.  Another 40% enroll 1000 – 5000 students. Most are dependent on tuition fees and don’t have decades of giving by alumnae behind them.  The smaller colleges are competing for a shrinking number of students.  The huge amount of money spent by their larger competitors on sport and facilities means that they cannot compete unless they have some unique thing to offer.  Moreover, the Southern states and to some extent the Western ones, will account for the growth of high school graduates over the next decade, leaving the North and Eastern states in steady decline. To add to the complexity, the number of Hispanic students is expected to grow substantially, and the smaller colleges are unprepared for this diversity, or, at least, for recruiting Hispanics. The successful trick seems to be to offer a broad liberal arts education along with specific technical training, concentration on the health sector being a good example; then aggressively recruiting students within a 150 mile radius.  (based on an article in the Wasington Post by Jeffrey Selingo)

The result of not having an effective recruitment strategy has been that some colleges are discounting their fees by as much as 47%.  Notwithstanding this, 40% of them missed their recruitment targets last year.  A neighbour of ours whose job involves advising colleges and universities on the recruitment of students, told us years ago that he foresaw a mass bankruptcy of a lot of smaller educational establishments without big endowments.  Fees are too high, the fear of huge student indebtedness too scary – poorer kids are beginning to skip the college experience, which is a great shame for them and bad for the country.  Not all colleges overspend on sports and other expensive facilities, or overpay their principals, but nonetheless further education is going to be beyond the reach of all too many young people.

Undermining higher education – a seriously stupid move, No. 2 of 3 posts

In America educational institutions have struggled with low graduation rates and the fact that graduates have failed to pay off their loans after earning degrees with “little value in the job market”.   Obama tried to strengthen consumer protections for those at for-profit colleges,  introduced a system called Scorecard that was designed to help students and parents make better  decisions about where to go to college, and allowed students to make fraud claims (viz. Trump University) if the tuition was useless.  In this case the government would help discharge the loans.  Colleges keep raising their fees, expecting the Federal government to underwrite them with federal aid. Obama resisted this.  All this annoyed the for-profit colleges.

Trump has now appointed Jerry Falwell, head of Liberty University to deregulate the educational business  and to loosen the rules for accreditation.  This is a potential disaster for education and for the students, and their parents, who commit themselves to ever more expensive education, in the expectation of getting top jobs..

Accreditors are supposed to maintain high quality in colleges, but they are paid by the educational institutions and therefore their efforts can be suspect.  It is difficult for parents and potential students to know ahead of time what they will be getting.  What so many do get is high grades but little extra knowledge, no extra critical thinking and poor teaching, and they don’t of course, know what they don’t know.  If regulations are eased or abolished there will be no way of being sure that any except the best known institutions are any good and not just money-making businesses, a type of college Jerry Falwell is well familiar with.  Apparently, only 38% of Liberty borrowers manage to pay as little as $1 on their student debt three years after leaving, and 41% of them earn less than $25,000 6 years after leaving.

The higher education industry is heading for a bust if Falwell is allowed to do what Trump wants.  No one will want to attend.  What’s the point?  Just keeping the lads and lasses off the streets?

 

 

 

 

How we do a disservice to education, number 1 of 3 posts

From Merrill Lynch’s “Investment Doctor”, under the heading ” the 11 worst degrees if you want a job in today’s job market”:

Surveys of hiring managers have found that having no degree may be better than getting a liberal arts degree. One survey question asked hiring managers what degrees they preferred, and just 1.6 percent said liberal arts. A whopping 64 percent, on the other hand, said they’d hire someone with no college degree. The problem? It’s not specialized enough to prepare you for a specific career. That’s why most liberal arts majors end up working in an entirely different field, such as real estate, business, finance, or sales. While it might make you a more well-rounded person, it probably won’t help you get a decent job.”

Makes you despair, doesn’t it?  One shouldn’t shoot the messenger; whoever wrote this was reporting a total misunderstanding of the point of education.

Or have they misunderstood it?  Undoubtedly, the idea that college/university is a training ground for the benefit of particular types of  profession and business has been fostered by business itself.  An education should teach you to think for yourself, look at things broadly and comprehensively, be able to problem-solve, and to understand human motivations.   Could it be that executives don’t want smart arts graduates who can think for themselves and have the impertinence to second- guess the boss.  Maybe they want, say, accountants who can keep the books quietly and obediently from day one.  Of course, they may not even be aware that this is their motivation.  Cocky youngsters can be a pain.

There is another aspect of this – resentment.  When I was looking for a younger person to potentially succeed me as managing director, I recruited a very intelligent and personable female graduate with a good (arts) degree from Edinburgh University.  This went down like a lead balloon with the employees. To start with, she was female, and they were not comforatable about the idea of a female telling them what to do.  Secondly, she did what I wanted her to do –  question what we were doing and why. Some of her ideas probably did arise out of ignorance of the market, and these were short-term learning problems.  But the staff simply made it impossible for her to operate, in a collective passive-aggressive refusal to cooperate.  I supported her, but in the end I had to give in – she left the company, a rather humiliating failure on my part.  But in a society that is still class-conscious and resentful of privilege I guess I mis- judged the willingness of the employees to accept intelligence and creativity of ideas as one way of keeping them in their jobs.   I don’t know whether this would happen in the US, but given the resentment of “us against them” at the moment, it wouldn’t surprise me.  Emotion and fear of the different can colour everything.