New York under water

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Climate change will bring good news and really bad news for New York City. The good news is that hurricanes might be more likely to miss the city over the next three centuries. This means the future risk of big storm surges, relative to local sea level, could be lower than today. However, the really bad news is that if we don’t slash greenhouse gas emissions, local sea level will rise by a huge 13 metres or more. With this factored in, New York could be facing storm surges at least 15 metres above the current sea level by 2300 (PNAS, doi.org/cfgw).

“Sea level rise itself is a very big hazard, before you start to look at tropical cyclones,” says Andra Garner of Rutgers University in New Jersey.Garner’s team used climate models to simulate the paths of future hurricanes and the storm surges they will produce. These were combined with estimates of sea level rise.They conclude that 2.3-metre floods, which happened in New York on average once in 500 years before 1800, struck roughly every 25 years from 1970 to 2005, will probably hit every five years by 2030 to 2045.If we don’t cut emissions, local sea level could permanently rise by 2.3 metres before the century ends.What’s more, meteorologist Jeff Masters of Weather Underground says the good news part could be wrong: at least one study shows climate change will make hurricanes more likely to hit the north-east US.
This article appeared in print under the headline “Future New York will be flooded”
(New Scientist)

It’s worth remembering that two-thirds of the world’s cities sit on coastlines. A rise in global sea levels of 11 feet would fully submerge cities like Mumbai and a large part of Bangladesh.

“Famous men can do whatever they want to women.” Donald Trump

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When Trump made this boast in the now infamous video he was just revealing a sad truth. Roman Polanski drugged and raped a 13-year-old girl, escaped prosecution, and went on to win an Academy Award “to a standing ovation”. Basketball star Kobe Bryant suffered only a brief hit to his reputation after he paid off a civil suit by a hotel employee who said he’d raped her. Bill Cosby, facing claims of sexual assaults spanning decades, dismissed his accusers as unstable women after his money. “The list goes on and on.” Recently, another basketball star, Derrick Rose, was embroiled in a civil suit for his alleged part in gang-raping an unconscious ex-girlfriend: the main concern of his team and fans seemed to be “how this will affect Rose’s play”. In our culture, charges of sexual assault against a male celebrity are viewed as “an inconvenient obstacle” to be overcome, “rather than the gravest of accusations”. Trump’s boast “is a reflection of who we are”. (Lovia Gyarkye, New Republic)

Leave me and my Epicurean friends out of that scenario, please! American culture has become wholly un-Epicurean, if you accept that it means respect for others, inclusivity, courtesy moderation and a wish to see society get on together in cooperative amity. There seems to be a massive deficit of orality and decency, something shared by all too many of the American religious community, especially those who support the current “government” (or grabitocracy). And now we learn that a senior member of the Russian government has been funnelling huge amounts of money to the NRA in order to further fire up the dangerous social divisions of the country. Justify that! Be my guest! How can one stand back and view the present situation with equanimity? Assault and rape are absolute no-no’s. So what can you say about complicity in unpatriotic treachery?

If I seem to have temporarily lost my ataraxiait is only owing to despair!

Thought for the day: it’s all about expectations

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More than two-fifths of British state secondary school teachers rarely or never advise their brightest students to apply to Oxford or Cambridge universities. A quarter say they usually do, and a fifth always do. (The Sutton Trust/The Times).

My grandson is starting to think about universities. He tells me that, in his excellent (private) school, there is no mention from the teachers who deal with university entrance of Oxford or Cambridge as options, nor are there any teachers who encourage the kids to raise their sights. Maybe they fear failure, but sometimes you have to take risks.

The joys of music in schools

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Music was one of my favourite subjects at school. It gave me an opportunity to express my more creative side. I would often spend my lunchtimes in the music computer rooms, working on my compositions. I was very blessed to have some excellent music teachers, a well-funded music department, a school culture where music was highly regarded, and a family that encouraged me to play and listen to a variety of music from a young age. Our school orchestra, senior choir and swing band were once the envy of the county. Against the predictions of both myself and my mum, I got an A for music aged 16.

But if The Economist is to be believed, fewer children will experience the joys of music at school if current trends continue. https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21737444-barely-one-20-pupils-took-music-gcse-last-year-how-much-longer-will-world-dance. Fewer students are taking music at GCSE and A level, the two qualifications Britons take at ages 16 and 18 respectively. Music departments are facing funding cuts, caused by a drop in demand and cuts to education generally. A relentless emphasis on science and vocational subjects has come at the expense of music, which is understandably seen as economically unproductive and not useful for most people’s careers.

Britain still excels at music at the elite level. Many of the world’s most famous musicians were and are British. Our music conservatoires are amongst the world’s best. The problem is that music is increasingly the exclusive preserve of the well off. Poorer students have to contend with underfunded music departments and the expectation from parents to pursue more lucrative pastimes. Success in the music industry often depends on luck or connections, not merit.

I think this is a national tragedy that must be reversed immediately. Music has all sorts of benefits for children, even those won’t don’t engage with it later in life. It helps them to express their emotions. It allows them to be creative and imaginative. It teaches them about history and other cultures, as well as their own. I couldn’t help but notice that people at my school who did music were better behaved, got better grades and enjoyed school more. Music is also wonderfully sociable, giving children a chance to meet different sorts of people. A more musical nation will certainly be a happier one.

 

Greed and bullying

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Eight years ago, Silicon Valley billionaire Vinod Khosla spent $32.5 million on an 89-acre property with prime beachfront in San Mateo County. Khosla then proceeded to padlock the gate that leads to the beach. His goal: to keep the public off his sand. The only problem: California law guarantees public access to California beachfront. Khosla’s padlocking went to court. In 2014, a county judge ruled against him. Then a state appeals court ruled against him. This past October, the California Supreme Court declined to hear Khosla’s appeal to that ruling.

Last week, the Sun Microsystems billionaire asked the U.S. Supreme Court — in a 151-page petition — to bless his padlock. Khosla will clearly “do anything,” says California state senator Jerry Hill, to “deny other people their right to enjoy the coast in California. (Inequality.org)

Come back, Sans Culottes and the guillotine! How dare he?

When I briefly worked in San Francisco, back in the early 1960s, I remember walking along the beach in San Mateo, cold and foggy though it was. Being British it never occurred to me that people could own beaches down to the water-line. It’s unheard of in Western Europe, as far as I know. What is the waterline? The high tide line, the low tide line? Can walkers walk through the water itself without being shooed away? You can see that such silliness is a lawyer’s delight. Walking along a sandy beach looking out at the ocean for whales and seals is an Epicurean pleasure, and should be available to all.