More on oil production in the United States – blessing or systemic threat?

By the end of the decade the US could have outstripped even Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil production. The development of new shale resources in North America and the opening up of the Alaska fields could see the country pumping 14.2m barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum liquids by 2020, up from 7.5m bpd in 2013. Sounds good? Read on.

A dangerous debt bubble in a notoriously volatile segment of corporate credit markets, could cause yet another stock market crash. By encouraging ever more drilling in pursuit of lower oil prices, the US Department of Energy has unleashed a potential economic monster and pitched these heavily debt-laden shale oil drilling companies into an impossible battle for market share against the low-cost producers of OPEC, e.g Saudi Arabia.

Much of the oil exploration was predicated on a price of $100 or more a barrel. A year ago the price of oil was $107, but fell briefly t0 $45. According to Deutsche Bank stress tests of subprime borrowers in the energy sector in the US, a US crude price $60 per barrel, for any length of time, could result in up to a 30pc default rate among B and CCC rated high-yield US borrowers in the shale oil industry. West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to hover around the low figure of $69 per barrel for the next year, the price very volatile and subject to OPEC manipulation. 2008 all over again? This time it will be courtesy of Saudi Arabia, hell-bent on protecting its position as the world’s biggest oil producer, and the greed of the oilmen, who have succesfully lobbied the effete US Department of Energy.

Epicurus would have commented that this is all self-induced, high-wire stress with an outcome that doesn’t bear thinking about. What is the point? What was Obama thinking? Trying to please the Repubicans with “energy independence”? Actually, there are other serious implications – we have offended the Saudis at a time that we want their cooperation in Yemen and elsewhere. And we are subjected our citizens to constant earthquakes into the bargain. You have to wonder about our masters.

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