“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you’re heading”.
To be fair, I think Trump does know where he is heading; he is consolidating the rule of the rich and the big corporations. Question: when will the distressed people who voted for him realise that they have been conned? At what point will they become aware that their champion is not their champion at all; that it is near impossible to bring back the old manufacturing jobs; that when he said he wanted to deport illegal immigrants what he also said (rather quietly) was that they would be deported but would be readmitted once they had gone through the proper procedures for re-entering the US and staying there permanently. When will the Trump supporters wake up to the reality that the rich are now greatly richer, but that social security, Medicare and pensions are being privatised and at the mercy of bandits on Wall Street? When will they spot that swathes of regulations designed to protect them at work and play have been scrapped and they no longer have recourse against bare subsistence wages, one year contracts, fewer holidays, less sick leave, summary dismissal and all the ills of 19th Century capitalism? One could go on, but the appointments usually signal the desired policies.
We have learned that the electorate is incredibly volatile. Nothing would be surprising. As Epicureans we should be calm, reflective and quietly advocate moderation. We keep hoping Trump means well, but if it flies like a bird, has feathers like a bird and tweets like bird…………..
The good news from the campaign is that Trump won the electoral college despite being massively outspent by Clinton (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Campaign_finance). Very often we assume that money is vital in determining US election outcomes, but this is the second presidential election in a row where the candidate who spent less became the president.
I think you’re right that dissatisfaction with Trump will grow from its already relatively high levels. I’d expect the Democrats to do well in the 2018 midterms, though perhaps not well enough to win the Senate. I’d be very surprised if they retook the House. Overall I expect Trump to be more ineffective than disastrously effective, so look forward to a Democratic president in 2020, provided Trump runs again. The next four years are going to be hard for America, but there is certainly light at the end of the tunnel. As Bill Maher says, Trump is the last hurrah of the old-fashioned socially conservative white man. Changes to the economy and society- increasing numbers of college graduates and ethnic minorities- give Democrats an increasing natural demographic advantage. Having said that, 2016 has taught Democrats that the white working class needs to be a part of its electoral coalition, the way it was for Obama. That doesn’t mean becoming racist or sexist, but it does mean being on the side of ordinary people. Obama’s victories in places Trump won, like Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin, show that when Democrats are seen as the party of ordinary people, they can win. 2016 didn’t change the fact that the Republican Party, outside of its socially conservative base in the South, is still widely seen as the party of plutocrats. Hillary Clinton was the weakest possible candidate for the Democratic nomination, because she was seen as an out of touch elitist. 2020 will present a new opportunity for Democrats to reaffirm their commitment to the working class. The future of the American Left, if they can seize it, is bright.