The following extract was written for the Daily Telegraph, a right-wing publication, with associated agenda. Nonetheless, Mr. Warner has a point.
“There are some Europeans who believe that the UK’s disruptive influence was at the root of all the EU’s problems, and that they can now revert to business as usual. This is a huge mistake, for the same factors that spurred Brexit – concern over immigration, precarious jobs, “increasingly alien law-making” – are just as evident over the Channel. Theresa May has managed to co-opt the groundswell of public alienation and reinterpret it as a vote for a “global Britain”. Yet Europe’s centrist parties are incapable of this sort of “bend-with-the wind leadership”. They resist any concessions to nationalist sentiments, because that runs counter to their precious European project, yet at the same time, they dare not introduce full EU political integration. So they’re just ploughing on. Punishing the UK for leaving is seen as more important than addressing underlying concerns. “It’s an almost willfully self-destructive approach.” (Jeremy Warner, The Daily Telegraph)
I must say, it does appear as if the EU thinks it can just carry on as usual, this in the face of nasty, hate-filled nationalist parties who will quite possibly win upcoming elections. Then there is the issue of the euro, a currency that some people think should never have been introduced, owing to the very disparate types of economy within the European Union. Currently the value of the euro in Germany is (artificially?) kept low, allowing the country to continue to export at low prices, while countries like Greece are struggling to pay with an (artificially?) highly valued euro. The German banks pile loan upon loan onto local banks in Greece, Spain, Italy and others, and that will probably never be paid off. We have had one currency crisis recently, and can expect another. Meanwhile, the EU went mad trying to build an empire that encroached upon an area deemed to be an old Russian sphere of influence, and took NATO along with it, seriously annoying the Russians. Really stupid, actually.
Some British people think that the EU is doomed and that it is better to get out now, rather than later, when the political and financial mess could Be huge. They may be right. The runes are against the EU, with a resurgent Russia, an unpredictable America, and a growing continental anti-EU sentiment.
I happen to think that the principle of the EU is one of the finest collective pieces of statesmanship ever devised by Europeans, but the dreamworld that the EU establishment now lives in is rapidly undoing the enterprise.
I totally agree with Mr Warner, and with more sensible people in the EU such as Guy Verhofstadt. Its in the interests of Britain to be close to the EU, so in that respect the Remainers are right. But its also true that its in the interests of the EU to close to Britain. Sure, the UK will proportionately lose out more from a hard Brexit. But that doesn’t mean the EU won’t suffer at all. While its possible that some cities will gain from the City of London’s relative loss of competitiveness, the European economy as a whole will lose out from more restrictions on trading with the UK.
The EU should not seek to punish Britain. But nor should it compromise the Single Market or the Customs Union. Britain should not be allowed to pick and choose which bits of either it likes and which it doesn’t. For too long, Britain has acted like a spoilt child. It enjoyed the benefits of the EU, while remaining outside its most controversial aspects- the Euro and Schengen. Now that it has chosen to leave, its economy will suffer. But if the EU seeks to make that suffering more acute, it does so at its peril; it risks looking vindictive and mean.
Having said that, those that believe the EU is doomed are taking a parochially short term view. Its true that America is currently unstable. But Trump has a very poor approval rating, and when he inevitably disappoints, the pro-EU Democrats will return to power. Russia is certainly a threat to the EU, not just because of its involvement in Ukraine, but because it funds anti-EU European parties, most notably the Front National in France. But the Russian economy is shrinking, and overly dependent on commodities. Inflation and interest rates are far too high. Once Putin’s adventures in the Middle East are over, the focus will return to domestic politics.
Of course the EU must reform. The Euro must be scaled back if it is to be sustainable. Schengen, which is quite nice in theory, may not be workable given the threat of terrorism and the refugee crisis. There is a natural limit to ‘ever closer union’- the EU’s leaders need to be definitive as to what they think it is. But at the same time, it should stay strong. Putin, Trump, and the nastiest of Europe’s right wing nationalists are willing for the EU to fail. It has a duty to prove them wrong.