Heat and economic productivity: follow-up to yesterday’s posting.

Research indicates that for a single very hot day — warmer than 86 degrees Fahrenheit — per capita income goes down by $20.56, or 28 percent. The optimum temperature for human productivity seems to be around 13 degrees Celsius or about 55 degrees Fahrenheit, as an annual average in a particular place. When it gets much hotter than this, researchers have found, economic productivity declines strongly.

Serious heat waves have become more prevalent in various parts of the globe. By the mid-1990s, persistently hot, poor countries such as Bangladesh were estimated to have lost 1 to 3 percent of all daylight work hours to extreme heat, which can cause exhaustion, stroke and sometimes death among exposed workers. In West Africa, the number of very hot days per year have doubled since 1960. Countries such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia could see the number of lost work hours more than double by 2055 and more than triple by 2085.

If the world’s nations live up to their promises in an agreement made last year in Paris to cut greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades, it could help slow the warming process. New technologies to cool workplaces — even in poor countries — could help some workers avoid dangerously hot working conditions, although that also could place more strain on infrastructure. (based on an article in the Washington Post, Tuesday, July 19, 2016)

The problem will not subside anytime soon. As a reader wrote on this blog, the irony is that global warming has been principally caused by the more developed countries, but some of the worst effects are being, and will be, felt by the less-developed. The result could be political turmoil and mass movements of people trying to escape unbearable living conditions, including starvation and lack of water. We must be wise and take this possibility very seriously. The un-said attitude of many in the establishment probably is “What can I do personally? Let the next generation sort it out”. Un-Epicurean and irresponsible, if true.

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