Smoking is rapidly dying out in the UK and US among young people – the first generation to come of age surrounded by laws that discourage smoking. Figures from the UK Office for National Statistics reveal that the proportion of smokers in the country fell to 15.5 per cent in 2016, down from about half in 2010. Although 19.3 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds smoke, the percentage has declined by 6.5 percent.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the number of smokers aged between about 12 and 18 dropped to 3.9 million in 2016, down from 4.7 million in 2015. These figures include cigarettes and e-cigarettes, both of which have seen large declines in use.
However, the situation in developing countries has not been so positive. Back in 2012 a study based on the Global Adult Tobacco Survey showed that nearly half of men in 14 developing countries were tobacco users and that women were starting to smoke at younger ages. Overall, researchers predicted. at that point that smoking would cause one billion deaths in the 21st century.
The good news is that quit rates have been higher in countries with programs in place for discouraging tobacco use and helping with quitting. Uruguay is interesting because of its stringent anti-tobacco policies, including mandated graphic labels on cigarette packaging, sales tax increases, bans on tobacco advertising and on indoor smoking in public places. Tobacco use in Uruguay has decreased by 25 percent over three years.
Among other promising data, 70 percent of Uruguay’s smokers expressed regret for every having taken up smoking, and in the five-year period covered by the survey, over two-thirds of smokers at least attempted to quit. Positive health changes are already being seen, and may in part be attributed to these policies. The ITC found a 22 percent reduction in the rate of hospital admissions for heart attacks and a 90 percent decrease in air contamination in enclosed public spaces in the year after they were enacted.
Hopefully, by picking off one developing country after another we can stop smoking, based on the interpretation of trade agreements. Only recently Philip Morris sued the Australian government, which demanded plain white wrappers and the words Smoking Kills on them. Philip Morris tried to get this overturned before a tribunal, a favourite trick. But the new regulation was surprisingly upheld. The Australian used a clause in their 1993 Hong Kong bilateral trade deal and the court ruled that it did not have jurisdiction to hear the case. The days of smoking might be numbered.
You’re right about the US and the UK, where smoking has definitely declined. I don’t know anyone at university who smokes regularly. But the same cannot be said for continental Europe, where smoking is all too common, even amongst the well educated. Over there, smoking has a cool image to it, and it’s seen as part of being sociable. Also, the governments there are less reluctant to impose anti smoking measures for fear of a backlash in the elections.
Look I don’t smoke, and I can’t really see the appeal. But I do think anti smoking measures can go too far. If someone wants to do something bad for them, that isn’t great, but it’s also their choice in a free society. I think if smoking were to be regulated and taxed even more than it is already, it would be a serious infringement on personal freedom, at least in the UK. I would also argue that smoking taxes can be regressive, because they consume a higher proportion of a poor person’s income than a rich person’s. The best way of reducing smoking is through education, anti-smoking campaigns run by charities, and social pressure. If it became socially unacceptable to smoke, far fewer people would take up smoking than if the government decided to impose more taxes or regulations.