The rise of Isis and fanatical Islam might lead you to think that far from fading, religion is making a comeback. But the reverse is true: it’s humanists who are on the march. “The fastest-growing belief system in the world is non-belief.” In Saudi Arabia, 5% of those polled in 2012 described themselves as atheist and 19% as non-believers – a higher proportion than in Italy. In Lebanon, the figure was 37%. True, Arab governments are now cracking down on atheism – Saudi Arabia has made it a terrorist offence – but this is “evidence not of confidence but of alarm”, just as the fanaticism of gun-toting jihadis is evidence of their fury at the spread of secularism. But the efforts of the militants to shore up belief will be in vain: the pull of materialism, rationalism and scepticism is too strong. Whether you’re Christian, Jewish or Muslim, there’s “just something about living in a society with restaurants and mobile phones, universities and social media, that makes it hard to go on thinking” that morality derives from some divine law. Jihadism is a grave threat today, but be assured, “secularism and milder forms of religion will win in the long run”. (Matt Ridley,The Times)
Epicureans do not believe in priests and Popes, Pearly Gates, or a angry gods. They believe in the bringing out the very best instincts of human beings: generosity, care, good humour, cooperation, to name a few, all without priests. But I myself am not sure Mr. Ridley is correct. Suddenly, we find ourselves in uncharted seas, surrounded with angry, vulgar and often violent people. This sudden reversal from the relative calm and quiet, the social and economic progress, of the last half century is quite likely to drive rational people back into irrationality and false hopes of a better after-life. This will only make matters worse – religions tend to have that effect.
I’d like to agree with Ridley, and part of me does. But there’s one problem. Religious people generally have far more children than the non-religious. Relatively non-religious countries like Japan, China, Estonia and Finland have low birth rates, whereas religious countries in the Middle East and North Africa have high birth rates. Even within developed countries, this pattern holds; the most notable example is the high birth rate amongst Israel’s Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) population, compared with the lower birth rate of the Hiloni (secular) Jews. Now I’m not sure whether that offsets the trend for more people to leave a religion than to join one. But I’m pretty certain that organised religion will remain a prominent feature of life around the world, even if it seems in terminal decline here in the West.
I spotted this article in The Atlantic, which offers a slightly different perspective: Mr Beinart thinks that religious decline has made us sourer:
America has witnessed a remarkable decline in religious observance over recent years. The percentage of people rejecting any religious affiliation has shot up from 6% in 1992 to 23% in 2014. The hope among many observers was that this “new secularism” would have the welcome effect of easing the “culture wars”. It hasn’t turned out that way. As people have drifted away from organised religion, they “haven’t stopped viewing politics as a struggle between ‘us’ and ‘them’”. Instead, they’ve “come to define us and them in even more primal and irreconcilable ways”. Research shows that lapsed white evangelicals are more relaxed about former hot-button cultural issues such as the legalisation of cannabis and gay marriage, but “more hostile to African Americans, Latinos and Muslims”, and generally more pessimistic and resentful. The causation behind this trend is unclear. Did these people abandon organised religion because they were disillusioned? Or is it the absence of church attendance – with its exposure to the message of universal love and a modest level of racial integration – that soured their outlook and made them more intolerant? Either way, the sad reality is that the culture war that began in the 1960s and 1970s hasn’t faded out; it’s got worse. (Peter Beinart, The Atlantic)
I think Mr Beinart’s analysis only applies to a small proportion of the white American population. Its worth noting that most white atheists vote Democrat, and are liberal across the board, on both the former hot button issues and attitudes to racial and religious minorities. Overall, the proportion of people approving of mixed race marriages (a reliable measurement of racist attitudes) has increased along with the non religious proportion of the population, though I don’t believe the latter has caused the former.
Having said that, there are a small fringe of extreme-right white Americans who hate Evangelicals and the Republican establishment for making peace with Black America. Some Evangelical politicians have come out in favour of immigration reform, most notably George Bush’s amnesty. The alt-right hates this, along with Bush’s comments about Islam being a peaceful religion, as well as the Republican establishment’s embrace of Israel and America’s Jewish community.
The only other thing I’d add is that Martin Luther King said that 11am on a Sunday morning was the most segregated hour in the American week. His words are still correct, and that’s coming from a reverend. So if you’re looking to religion to facilitate racial integration, you may be disappointed.