As if America didn’t have enough to worry about, the US Census Bureau has just released data highlighting a troubling fall in the rate of population growth. The US population grew by just 0.7% last year – the lowest figure since the Great Depression years of 1936 and 1937. Although the US is still faring better than Europe, where some nations are actually shrinking, the trend is worrying given the dampening effect it is likely to have on the economy.
The Great Depression was partly caused by a rapid decline in the birth rate, which fell further as a result of the crash. It was the postwar baby boom, and the consumer demand it thereby created, that helped turn things around. New figures showing that the number of young people living with their parents (or siblings) is at levels not seen since 1940 suggest that no such baby boom is on the cards today. “But at least the US still has immigration, right?” Not if Donald Trump carries out his promised crackdown. If he does, Trump will need a new slogan to save the country from decline: “Make America mate again”. (Stephen Mihm, Bloomberg)
Is the economy all that matters? Is not a population of 7 billion enough for this small planet? Growing population is essential to capitalism, but capitalism needs to be utterly reformed if it is to be viewed positively ever again. In recent years it has revealed itself to be, not the best option in a lot of poor options, but actually malevolent in so far as it has produced truly grotesque gaps between rich and poor, throwing massive amounts of bribe money at politicians, lobbyists and think- tanks to keep it that way. It needs to be reformed and to live within the means of us all. This implies adjusting to permanently low growth and reviewing its method of operation. By this I mean that it has to be more efficient, and that can be brought about by decent treatment of workers so that they are motivated, Living in America it is clear that far too many employees are badly trained and indifferent to the customers and the running of their companies. The bosses waft above it all , planning how to increase their pay and moaning abour government regulations intended to temper their greed.
No baby boom , thank you!
As any demographer will tell you, wealthy nations tend to have far fewer children than poorer ones. The truth is, America’s falling birth rate is a sign of its prosperity. There’s nothing wrong with it at all.
A population growth rate of 7% a decade is perfectly respectable. Its what Britain achieved in 2001-2011, and we’re doing fine. If anything, when the UK Census of 2011 was released, the main reaction in the media was that the growth rate was too high. Inevitably, the right wing tabloids blamed it on immigration, but immigration is necessary to fill skills shortages, not so much to boost sheer numbers.
I totally agree with you that the GDP growth rate is increasingly irrelevant. No politician will be able to make it match China’s or India’s. But what we can do is provide a good standard of living for our citizens. That means a strong welfare state, affordable universal healthcare, and state care for both infants and the elderly; if those things reduce corporate profits than that’s a price I’m willing to pay. Most importantly, a good standard of living means a healthy environment. High population growth rates exacerbate climate change, and consume more of our finite natural resources. We have a duty to preserve the planet for future generations, and again if the costs if a few percentage points of GDP growth, then that’s a necessary sacrifice.