A bit long, but interesting. No, this post is not about the euro and Greece (although I will post about that tomorrow). It is about a little-advertised economic coup, which is important.
Apparently, Gazprom is putting the finishing touches on a massive deal that would double the amount of Russian gas flowing to Germany via a second Nord Stream pipeline, a deal big enough to change the geopolitical calculus of the entire region.
Once this pipeline is finished, almost all of Eastern Europe will be irrelevant to Russia in terms of gas distribution. There will be no need for any gas to transit through Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Belarus, or Hungary. With Russia’s help, Germany will become the energy hub of Europe. Increasing quantities of Russian gas will be distributed by Germany to countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Britain. In this way Germany will leverage the power of Russia, but also cement the domination sought since the days of Kaiser Wilhelm. Western Europe will become dependent on Germany for gas supplies.
As far as Germany is concerned, the Ukraine crisis is a sideshow. It seems that, despite appearances, Germany and Russia have a recent history of secret cooperation and that the current sanctions against Russia are being quietly ignored by Germany. (Source: Gazprom’s Dangerous New Nord Stream Gas Pipeline to Germany, Robert Morley, The Trumpet). Mrs. Merkel may look harmless and grand-motherly, but she rules in the tradition of Bismark.
Meanwhile, according to OilPrice.com, Putin has conceived a second whammy:
“Russia’s state-run gas company Gazprom says it has taken a step toward building the Turkish Stream pipeline by securing permission from Ankara to begin surveying waters of the Black Sea for the offshore leg of the project. Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, says he expects Ankara and Moscow will sign an agreement to build Turkish Stream by the end of June.” (Controversial Gazprom Pipeline Clears Hurdle, Oil Price)
Ah, the historic Russian push towards the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Who says history never repeats itself? We live in interesting times.
In a speech to the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs STRATFOR CEO George Friedman said, “The primordial interest of the United States, over which we have fought the First, the Second and Cold Wars has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united they’re the only force that could threaten us. And to make sure that that doesn’t happen.” (“primordial” is a bit strong, given how hard it was to involve the US in two world wars. Ed.).Washington’s strategy has been to prevent German industry from linking up with Russia’s vast natural resources to create an integrated Eurasian free trade zone that would dwarf US GDP. If Germany becomes Moscow’s biggest gas station it will create a huge economic rival.
Love the comparison with Bismarck; in my opinion, Wilhelm II’s non-renewal of Bismarck’s Reinsurance Treaty with Russia was one of the biggest foreign policy blunders of the 19th century, as it weakened Germany’s diplomatic leverage, and alienated Russia, driving it into an alliance with France (which had recently been defeated by Germany in the Franco-Prussian War). Merkel may be a conservative, but unlike her US counterparts (Donald Trump anyone?), she is smart.
It is also smart for Putin to empower Germany at the expense of the rest of the western world. German public opinion vis a vis foreign policy is currently more non interventionist and non confrontational than American or even British sentiment. Putin does not want to conquer Europe, he simply wants to neutralise its perceived threats to Russian interests.