Before the most recent French elections, I recommended that French people vote for Emmanuel Macron in what was my first ever post for this blog http://hanrott.com/blog/why-epicurean-frenchmen-should-vote-for-macron/. Having won the election by a greater than expected margin, I thought I would examine how his presidency has gone so far. I should start by saying that I do not regret endorsing him. Governing France, a divided country with a cynical and hypercritical electorate, is a thankless task. I view Macron’s recent declining approval ratings as inevitable, because any attempt at meaningful reform is bound to be opposed by someone.

This week’s article comes from Nabila Ramdani in the Independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/emmanuel-macron-france-french-president-politics-first-100-days-scandal-2024-olympics-a7893926.html. She argues that Macron is fulfilling the promises he made during his campaign. For instance, he is pushing ahead with reforms to the labour market despite opposition from unions, and the increasingly likely prospect of mass strikes in September. This is because France’s unemployment rate remain stubbornly high, caused partly by strict regulations that keep people in their jobs, which makes employers less inclined to take on new staff. Macron wants to adopt the Nordic ‘flexicurity’ model, where employers have freedom to hire and fire who they want, but reasonable unemployment benefits prevent the temporarily jobless from falling into poverty. However, the French left view Macron’s reforms as free market fundamentalism; for the left, job security is a privilege that cannot be compensated for by the welfare state.

The French right is also becoming dissatisfied with Macron. He wants to cut France’s military budget, which as a proportion of GDP is amongst the highest in Europe. The fact is, spending on conventional weapons and vehicles does very little to keep a country secure in the modern age. For far less money, investment could be made in cybersecurity and intelligence, which would do far more to prevent terrorism. But many conservatives regard having  a sizeable armed force as both a strategic advantage and a part of the country’s greatness as a key player in world affairs. The military aside, Macron is too pro-European for some conservatives. Unlike liberal politicians in Britain, Macron makes the positive emotional case for the EU, rather than simply talking about the adverse consequences of European disintegration. During a time of poor economic growth across Europe, making such a case is commendable. It’s important the nations of Europe don’t retreat into the parochial nationalism of the past. And despite Europe’s economy not doing especially well at the moment, EU disintegration would only make the continent even poorer than it already is. If companies who want to do business across the EU have to comply with 27 different regulatory codes instead of just 1, they will face a crippling amount of bureaucracy.

Overall Macron’s presidency has been far from perfect. Like Ramdani, I really didn’t appreciate his comments about Africa having civilisational problems, even though he’s right about some African countries’ high birth rates holding them back. Sometimes he comes across a bit too showy, and could take himself more seriously. I’m very Northern European- I like my politicians boring. Although I approve of Macron standing up to Putin and proposing a diplomatic solution in Syria, I wish he were more critical of Trump. His most controversial comments have been regarding the Euro: he wants a Eurozone budget. It’s understandable that he wants to help poorer Eurozone countries like Spain and Greece, while maintaining the benefits of currency union. But Germany and other rich Eurozone countries would lose out from such a proposal, so it’s hard to see it coming to fruition.

But overall, like Ramdani, I think he’s done a pretty decent job considering the circumstances. So far, he’s successfully struck a balance between support for the free market while protecting social insurance. He’s stood up for gay people, refugees and asylum seekers- even promising to ease immigration restrictions for American scientists who feel disillusioned with Trump. On the world stage, he’s far more respectable than Sarkozy, and certainly more charismatic than Hollande. He isn’t belligerent, rash or petty. He is far better than any of his rivals would have been. I would recommend that whatever personal reservations they have about him, the French should give him the benefit of the doubt until the end of his term. If by then he has been an absolute failure and there is an obvious replacement candidate, then he should go. But given the generally sleazy and corrupt nature of French politics, it’s hard to see that happening. Macron has been both a safe pair of hands and a committed reformer. We can only hope he continues to be.