The United States is rapidly becoming less Christian. New data shows that “white Christians are the minority in 19 states. Nationwide, Americans who identify as Protestant are now in the minority for the first time ever.” Some of this is owing to growing racial diversity, but another big factor is the general decline in religious belief. “One in five Americans now identify as religiously unaffiliated. In 13 states, the ‘nones’ are the largest religious group.” And their numbers are growing.
The Christian Right is fast losing influence – and it knows it. It explains the attempt to de-fund Planned Parenthood and the fact that in 2011 alone, states passed nearly three times as many abortion restrictions as they had in any previous year. This legal onslaught isn’t a reaction to changes in sexual behaviour – the abortion rate was already in decline; it’s just a desperate effort to wield waning influence. The irony is that this “panic-based overreach” is alienating young people and thus only speeding the decline of the Christian Right. (Amanda Marcotte, alter.net)
Pope Francis might well stem the tide, although for how long we don’t know. If he re- orientates the emphasis of some Americans towards care for the poor and action on the environment it will be to the good. Epicurus would approve of the decline in belief in supernaturalism, but would leave in its place moral education of the young; put simply, how to get along with others in a civilised manner.
Human moral psychology evolved over tens of thousands of years as we became an ever more cooperative, social species. Early humans living in small bands were forced to hunt and forage collectively or starve. That requires cooperation, which fuelled the evolution of cognitive facilities underlying collective action – the ability to share goals, responsibilities and rewards.
“Morality is a device for solving the social challenges of everyday life, where the basic problem is to get otherwise selfish individuals to work together as a group and enjoy the benefits of cooperation.” (Joshua Greene, a neuroscientist at Harvard University, quoted in New Scientist).
In other words, moral behaviour can be instilled in children without the need of priests, bishops and archbishops. It is mostly common sense, but sense only becomes common when it is it is pointed out to everyone.
On the issue of abortion specifically, polls show that unlike gay marriage, there hasn’t been a trend of ever-increasing support towards the position of liberalisation. Much like gun control, support for it has fluctuated over time. Even as America secularises, opposition to abortion will remain. This is particularly true given America’s increasing Latino population- many of whom come from countries where abortion is far more heavily restricted.
As for religion generally, Christianity generally is in decline, but the decline is no more pronounced on the Christian Right than it is on more liberal denominations. Well into the middle of the last decade, it looked as if the Evangelical movements was bucking the trend, as shown by the reelection of Bush in 2004- Bush won every state in the so-called Bible Belt. But now it looks like the Evangelical movement too, is in decline, albeit at a slower pace. Although it may not seem like it because of Pope Francis, but in the long term, it is liberal religion that is declining the fastest. This is because those with socially liberal views increasingly see religion as unnecessary. Those with conservative views need religion as a basis for morality. Opposition to gay marriage, contraception or extra-marital sex makes no sense in the absence of any religious doctrine.
I’m glad you’re optimistic about the decline of religion and its more reactionary elements. But ultimately such optimism is only applicable to the western world. In Brazil, China and much of Asia, Evangelical Christianity is on the rise. In Russia and Eastern Europe, socially conservative views remain, despite low levels of religiosity. But the most disturbing religious trend is the rise of fundamentalist Islamism in the Middle East and North Africa, fuelled by Saudi propaganda, hatred of the West, anti-Semitism and hatred of Israel (two different but related things) and crushing poverty- with no chance of ever coming out of it.