Looming over the current British election is the fact that a significant proportion of the electorate say they would vote to leave the EU.
The British view the EU in a totally different way to those on the Continent. The British still view the EU as a group of sovereign nations that have transferred important sovereign rights to Brussels in order to create a single market for economic purposes. Some British people think the process has gone too far.
On the Continent, however, nearly everyone, except the Hungarians, is in favor of central control by the EU over economic policy, accompanied by direct democratic control over the process. The EU elections led to the democratic choice of Jean-Claude Juncker by a 26-2 majority, an election that was respected by everyone except the British.
The Euro is a mess, needs reform, but is still overwhelmingly supported on the Continent, and, even if there is another crisis, its membership might be reduced, but it will survive. European integration is not going away. New countries – Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic want to join the Euro, and those in waiting, such as Romania and Croatia want to as well. This leaves the UK out on a limb, without allies, except for the proto-fascist, Victor Orban. At the moment Britain has an effective veto on the banking matters so important to it. But as new countries join the Euro British ability to get its way on financial matters will shrink. All the British will be able to do is to ask for opt-outs that will make them very much the odd-ball, misaligned member.
No European nation wants Britain to leave, but the current situation is unsustainable. The only hope is a deal where the British don’t actually leave the EU, but become “associates”. This leaves them with little influence, sitting on the periphery of Europe, at the mercy of decisions they have had no hand in.
Why bring this up on the Epicurus blog? Because life in Britain would be, in these circumstances, diminished and much less pleasant, and the instigators of the Brexit would live to bitterly regret being reduced to a powerless, poor, offshore island.
A few months ago I attended a dinner and sat next to a passionate opponent of the EU, a founder of UKIP, which is principally an anti- immigration movement. “What” I asked him, “would you actually do once you had left the EU? How would Britain survive?” He replied, “There are all the English- speaking countries. We would do deals with them”. I pointed out that Australia and New Zealand were no longer interested – their eyes were upon South East Asia. Canada? Likewise. The US – likewise. What would Britain have once its principal industry, financial services, had been, at best, neutered? Nothing important to America ( Britain’s armed forces don’t even count any more, and Wall Street would probably rather welcome seeing the City of London diminished). Britain has been the gateway into the EU for foreign companies, such as car manufacturers. They would depart. What would be left? Tourism and thatched cottages.
” I hadn ‘t thought of that”, he replied. No. Thinking can be a problem.
I regard myself as a centrist on this issue: Brexit would neither be particularly good nor particularly bad. I think successful countries such as Norway, Switzerland and Israel show that life is possible outside the EU.
The reason why at the moment I would vote to stay in is because there is a part of me that feels very culturally European. Conservatives are always talking about the Anglosphere or the Commonwealth, but I feel that I have much more in common with the middle class Dane or German than with many people in my own country, let alone people in India, Pakistan or Australia. To be able to co-operate with your natural allies and friends is something worth more than any amount of money. The Europeans do not want us to leave, not because they want to control us, but because they love us. I think as Europeans, we share an identity that we simply do not with non-Europeans. UKIP says that by leaving the EU, we can increase the proportion of immigrants from outside it, but that would be a great shame- EU immigrants are generally more successful and better integrated than their non-EU counterparts.
Thank you for the thoughtful post, Owen. I think you have some good points, but we disagree somewhat on the effects an exit would have on life in Britain. The good ‘ole boys who turn up at 9.30 to paint your house and spend half of the rest of the day lingering over copious cups of tea, these might get their old jobs back from Poles etc But I don’t think it will do a lot of good for the country. But of course, all this is speculation.
In that regard I think I agree with you. In any case the effects of EU immigration have been exaggerated, I don’t know anyone from Eastern Europe, even though I live in one of the more immigrant-friendly towns. You occasionally hear a few eastern-sounding languages, but nothing that amounts to the ‘fundamental transformation’ that the tabloids describe. But on the other hand, if we left the EU, I think we would allow the Poles to stay, if our economy is as dependant on them as you suggest.