A simple blood test could be used to predict whether a person is likely to die within the next five years – even if at the time of the test, they are well. Researchers tested the blood of more than 17,000 generally healthy people for the presence of 106 biomarkers, molecules that are indicative of some kind of biological condition. The volunteers’ health was then monitored over the next five years, during which time nearly 700 of them died from a range of illnesses. When their records were compared, the scientists found that all of the volunteers who had died had similar levels of four biomarkers in particular – including alpha-1-acid glycoprotein, which is raised during infection and inflammation, and citrate, which is essential for metabolism. The study was originally conducted by a team in Estonia, where it involved nearly 10,000 people. When the results came through, the scientists were so surprised they asked colleagues in Finland to repeat the experiment on a further 7,500. The results were identical. (The Daily Telegraph, re-reported in The Week).

Problem. This is like taking tests for memory loss – what happens if the test tells you you are about to develop alzheimers? Wouldn’t you rather not know if there is nothing you can do about it? Same with this test. At the age of 75 there is a chance that I might die in the next five years. Do I want to know this? NO!