Yesterday’s edition of the Washington Post carried an article by George Will. He pointed out that loss of manufacturing jobs was the tip of an iceberg – it is the continued loss of retailing jobs that is an even greater worry. There isn’t a lot you can do about manufacturing, if only because what is left of it in the West, that hasn’t been moved overseas, is rapidly being automated. Employment in that sector will continue to decline. The loss of conventional shops is also occurring. Macy’s and Sears, once major retailers are in real trouble, and where I live the shops are constantly changing hands as new companies come, find their efforts are uneconomic, and leave. I remember traveling through Florida, north to south, observing among other detritus of junky building the number of derelict shopping centers, boarded up and weed-infested, and wondering why. No need to wonder now -Amazon and other online shopping companies are decimating bricks-and-mortar retailing at a huge rate. Amazon only the other day announced the recruitment of a large number of staff in the expectation of further growth, although it is a drop in the ocean compared with the overall decline in retailing jobs, and the wages are dreadful, apparently. Now they are in food delivery as well as everything else. But at least they do sell items made in America. Walmart grew huge by sourcing most of it products from China, Vietnam and other countries, accounting for a massive movement of shipping to and fro.
I admit to being one of the many culprits. I ordered some cartridges for the printer from Amazon.com yesterday afternoon; by this evening they had arrived. No need to get in the car and spend time visiting the nearest appropriate shop (15 minutes there and 15 minutes back). All too convenient. Soon drones will deliver almost before you click “confirm order”.
What can Trump do about jobs in this sector, the number of which is/was huge? Not a lot. I am reminded of King Canute (1015 to 1035) who commanded the tide to stop coming in in order to demonstrate to his courtiers that he was not omnipotent. Regrettably, Trump is not that modest; the tide will come in regardless.
In parts of the UK, there are still an abundance of retail jobs, even if Amazon is even more popular here than in the States (delivery is cheaper here because of our higher population density.) I worked for a retail company for eight months. Sure, the wages weren’t great (about $8.20 an hour in US terms.) But the hours were low (good because I’m busy with university studies), at a convenient time and very flexible. Helping customers may not be glamorous or exciting, but it was the first long-term job I’ve had, and its proven to be invaluable work experience. There are many people like me who need these sorts of jobs, so I’m worried about the rise of online retail, even if it poses no threat to overall employment.
There’s another detriment to online retail that almost everyone misses out. If traditional stores go into decline, that comes at the expense of the public space; increases in the popularity of restaurants, bars or cafes cannot prevent the decline of the high street. This means that the places people go to meet, including tourist locations, will be poorer and less popular. If more and more can be done at home- shopping, working, the cinema, socialising etc- people will go out less and less. Sure that’s more convenient if one is short of time, but people need somewhere to go. An increasingly housebound population cannot be good, particularly given the rise of mental illness and social isolation.