Every action has a reaction. This is a principle, based on common sense, that everyone involved in foreign affairs should internalise. Only they don’t.
” If I put a line of so-called “defensive” rocket bases along the Russian frontier there is nothing the Russians are powerful enough to do about it at the moment. But what would happen if a nationalistic regime sought to get even for this humiliation in the future?”
“If I keep expanding the EU into the Baltic countries, Roumania, Bulgaria, even Ukraine, I might be successful for a few years. But how will the Russians react if and when they feel powerful enough to do something about it? We are enfringing upon their sphere of influence . Is it necessary? Does Roumania, for instance, fit comfortably into the EU, or are we empire building because we can?”
Well, we are now learning the lesson of hubris and arrogance. West has done both of the above, and has forgotten that there is genuine nostalgia in Russia for the old Empire and for great power status. Surprise! Surprise! Russians are hugely enjoying the discomforture of the EU as their country forces a huge number of Syrians to move to Western Europe. Americans are aghast at the blatant interference in the election of Rusisn government hackers, who are demonstrating how to get even – and possibly get an American President to their liking, at little cost to themselves.
The relevance to Epicurus? Epicurus would at all, times advise going slowly, thinking things through, avoiding enfuriating the opposition, seeking friends out of enemies, not taking advantage of temporary weaknesses. In other words, calm moderation. Seems the establishment in the United States is getting its come-uppance both at home and abroad. It isn’t surprising.
This is the one of my main criticisms of Hillary Clinton- her attitude towards Russia. Her support for a no-fly zone in Syria could lead to conflict with Russia if America tries to shoot down Russian planes that defy the zone. She has supported relentless NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, which has worried Russia, understandably. She seems to think that American interventions are inherently good, yet any Russian intervention must be evil. The Russians understandably view that as the highest form of arrogance and moral superiority. What we need is a foreign policy in which the top priority is to avoid any conflict with Russia. As the German foreign minister has said, this sabre rattling has to stop.
There are other good reasons not to expand the EU eastwards. They, Ukraine especially, are far too economically backward to be a part of the Single Market. Jobs in the West could be easily offshored to places where wages, taxes and regulations are lower. Meanwhile, you would have a massive influx of people from the East to the West, people who understandably want to enjoy the higher standard of living the West provides. But this could lead to a brain drain of the East, depriving it of the talent it needs to compete. It would also result in a far right backlash in the richer countries, because workers would resent foreign competition for jobs.