A friend of ours made the following comments in an email, and I want to pass them on (having secured his agreement) because they represent a point of view I haven’t heard expressed in the media (or which I have missed if it has been):
“Multinational, multilingual unions do not last forever. Although the use of force can prolong their lives, they eventually collapse (Austro-Hungary, Ottoman). Without force to support them they collapse even faster (Soviet Union, after Gorbachev refused to use much force). Small scale unions have a better chance of survival, but the cases of Canada and Belgium show that even then they struggle to maintain unity.
“This does not mean that the EU was a mistake. I prefer to think of it as a transitional arrangement lasting many decades, that helped to reduce the risk of conflict and strengthened economic ties. One hopes that these two good things will have put down roots that will ensure that the benefits survive the eventual demise of the EU.
“Had I been able to vote I would have voted to remain because of the short term economic costs of leaving, but somewhat reluctantly. The EU has so many deep structural problems (too remote from people, obscure and expensive governance arrangements, imposed top down without much grass roots support, limited cross border solidarity, etc) that it will not survive for ever, or even for very long. Indeed, in trying to cheer myself up by listing the good consequences of Brexit, I have decided that one of the main benefits of leaving now is that the UK will avoid some of the costs that arise as the EU crumbles amid much acrimony and fighting over the spoils. It would have been desirable to have remained for a few years longer, as we are not yet at the point of serious disintegration (although the process has started – viz the eurozone and Schengen), but we lose little by leaving now.
This is not to say that there will not be problems, mostly transitional, for some people, and I certainly hope that your family is spared them. Only that such problems will be less by leaving too early than by leaving too late”.
My own reaction to the above: I am a strong advocate of the EU for historical reasons and because we are in an age of big power blocs, military alliances and multinational trade deals. A nation out of the loop struggles in such a scenario, its industry at a disadvantage, its voice lost in the world. Britain had a loud voice in the EU until it declined as an effective military power and started to annoy other members by trying to get special treatment for this, that and the other. However, if the country finally does leave the EU (to the latter’s relief and my personal dismay) the scenario described above does offer some small consolation and may very well prove a spot-on prediction.
However, the fact is that the man in the street will suffer. The big money that gets its way wants to scrap EU regulations, but does want the cheap labour. So the supporters of Brexit will be deeply disappointed and ignored. Immigration will continue, but the rules that govern how people are treated will disappear. This is my fear. It is Epicurean to work together, not apart. Only now are we beginning to think this through.
Its very good that an alternative point of view is made on the blog, I’m very grateful for that. However, I’d like to defend the EU in response.
The author claims that multinational and multilingual unions do not last forever. That’s only half true. The real truth is that nothing lasts forever. The Roman Empire eventually collapsed, but the then-independent Kingdom of Bavaria- with its homogeneously German speaking population- was eventually incorporated into the German Empire. Sometimes, multinational states form out of a combination of nation states; unification is just as likely as fragmentation. And even if the EU is destined to collapse, if its a force for good, we should preserve it for as long as we can.
The author presumes that the EU will ‘crumble.’ How can you possibly predict that? Its impossible to say for sure. It might collapse in a dramatic fashion, but what’s more likely is that it will disband peacefully, due to mutual agreement amongst the EU member states that the institution has outlived its purpose.
The author also claims that due to the EU’s inevitable collapse, it is better to leave too early rather than too late. I disagree. If the EU were to collapse, I would want to have a say as to the terms of its abolition, rather than sit helplessly on the sidelines. The UK has the potential to be a civilising force in Europe, its a shame we never really made the most of it.
If there’s any silver lining to Brexit, its that money doesn’t necessarily buy elections. Big business and the banks were quite rightly overwhelmingly in favour of staying in. But despite that, we left. I’m now stuck in a weird position where I actually want the wishes of the elite to come true. Hopefully, the Conservative Party’s wealthy donors will put pressure on the party to negotiate a Norway-style deal where even though on paper we are out of the EU, we are still in the Single Market and are still signed up to many of its institutions. However, I fear that the isolationists and little Englanders that voted for Brexit will get their way, and we will leave the Single Market. The consequences for our economy would be catastrophic, but at least we would’ve ‘taken control.’