Some time ago I attended a dinner as sat next to one of the founders of UKIP. I asked him what he was going to do once he had got shot of the EU. “Simple, he said, “ we should be trading with the English speaking world.” I pointed out that the US was no longer very interested in the UK; China and South East Asia were the thing. Canada. Same thing. Australia and New Zealand? Even more so. We blew the Commonwealth years ago and it won’t come back. They have moved on. China is sewing up Africa and Central Asia. Japan is getting old and its economy is not that good. Forget Russia, and Latin America has never been much good for us since we built the Argentine railways – we as a nation don’t speak Spanish. I politely inferred that he hadn’t a clue how much the world had changed . We are just a medium sized nation with so-so education and work ethic.
The fact is that, if we want to do business with the EU, our biggest trading partner, we would have to continue abiding by their rules, but without any say in what those rules are. We would, like Norway , still have to pay a huge levy to Brussels. The EU would certainly want to build up Frankfurt to replace the City of London (why not?). Meanwhile, we have abandoned a huge part of our law and substituted EU law. Disentangling all of that would be a huge effort and take years. Lastly, studies by the World Bank and others say that the economic advantages of Brexit to the GNP are minimal – some say positive but tiny, others say negative.
In short, it just isn’t worth the effort and disruption. Don‘t leap off a cliff in the dark unless you are sure there is a mattress to catch your fall beneath you!
Meanwhile, Cameron has done a good job: he’s fixed the problem of EU migrants on the take (no handouts before four years and they have to pay in first); he has made sure that Britain doesn’t have to rescue countries in trouble with the Euro; and the EU has accepted that Further integration and expansion of the EU is stalled.
I’m afraid I have to disagree with you when you say that Cameron has done a good job. His priorities for renegotiation were totally wrong. He should’ve focused on the amount of corporate influence there is in the EU, particularly the disproportionate influence the German conglomerates have on EU policy. Then there’s TTIP, which should’ve been significantly modified as part of any agreement, with a view to scrapping the ISDS entirely. Cameron should have demanded the EU treat the Southern European nations more kindly in the face of economic depression. Common Agriculture Policy should be massively overhauled. Agriculture subsidies are a form of protectionism that deprives the Third World by penalising their main exports. It also makes food more expensive because it’s cheaper to produce food in the Third World.
The long and short of it is that the renegotiation was a total failure. It’s not even legally binding going forward. Even if the current European Commission agrees to it, there’s nothing to stop a future Commission from acting differently. The EU has continued to expand and gain power over the last half century- there’s no reason not to believe that the trend towards ever closer union will continue, especially as so many prominent European politicians seem to be in favour of it.
This referendum is being held too soon. We should’ve waited a longer time for a more thorough and intellectual debate, instead of the clash of insults we’re getting currently. We should have negotiated with other countries as well as the EU itself to push for reform. In theory I agree with the free movement of labour, but I don’t think it’s sustainable in the modern world, with so much non-EU immigration and the massive and ever-increasing disparities of wealth between the EU member states. Although Eastern Europe has recovered following Communism, it still remains notably behind. The EU needs fundamental reform, but you can only negotiate that in a longer period of time. Had Cameron been wiser and more patient, he may have achieved more. But since the referendum is between an unreformed and dysfunctional EU, and Brexit, I’m genuinely undecided as to which to go for.
I think you make some very good points that I hadn’t thought of. Of course I toy
tally agreeon TTiP and ISDS, but do ‘t think you would ever shift the French on agriculture if you negotiated for a year!